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STORY OF THE WEEK: Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee revisited his top campaign theme as he celebrated his primary victory Tuesday night. “As we said, it’s not the cards you get dealt, it’s how you play the hand,” McKee said, reprising a line from the most effective ad of the campaign, the one with his 94-year-old mother. While the governor’s card-playing reference refers to the circumstances when he took office in March 2021, it doubles as a metaphor for his narrow primary win over Helena Buonanno Foulkes and third-place finisher Nellie Gorbea. Sure, incumbents benefit from the free media coverage that comes with their office and other advantages, and organized labor provided crucial support for McKee’s campaign. Yet nearly seven in 10 Democratic primary voters chose someone other than McKee. Foulkes was closing the gap ahead of Sept. 13, and the narrow margin of McKee’s victory (about 3,000 votes) suggests someone could have won the race with a different approach. Gorbea was considered the likely winner for much of the primary, but her support fell amid headlines about voting issues in the run-up to the election. And Foulkes’ campaign didn’t run its first ad until May 17 – more than five months after she did her initial media interview. While Foulkes was her own best advocate in interviews and debates, her campaign was unsettled, with changes in campaign managers and media consultants along the way. Would things be different had Foulkes or Gorbea waged a more aggressive effort — based on well-publicized news reports — against McKee earlier in the campaign? We can only wonder. (Then again, the primary was marked by months of far fewer than usual campaign events, questionable public interest and tepid turnout.) McKee’s campaign, led by Brexton Isaacs, made the most of its hand, ramping up its efforts as more Rhode Islanders started following the race. The incumbent’s campaign ads cut through the clutter of TV spots to present McKee in an appealing light. And as expected, McKee ran up the score in mail votes and the cities and towns to the north and east of Providence, including East Providence, Pawtucket, Johnston, North Providence, and of course, the governor’s native Cumberland. After the slow burn of the primary, Rhode Island’s Nov. 8 general election is less than eight weeks away — the prime time of the 2022 election season is upon us.
GOT DEMOCRATIC UNITY? First, Democrats hope to bring themselves together for a unified front. That effort got off to a bad start on primary night when Eva-Marie Mancuso, a top adviser to McKee, tried handing the governor a phone during his victory speech as Foulkes was on the line, presumably to concede and offer congrats. “No, that’s not going to happen,” McKee responded. “… Eva, hang up on them. Hang up on them.” Not putting your boss in a bad position is Politics 101, and the cringe-worthy moment became a local hot topic until McKee later took responsibility. By Thursday afternoon, Foulkes and McKee had met for what the governor’s office called a positive meeting. Based on her strong performance, the former CVS Health executive is certainly viable for a future campaign. In a statement, she vowed to remain involved: “I’m disappointed that I won’t have the opportunity to serve you as governor, but in the coming weeks and months, I plan to figure out how I can do my part to move Rhode Island forward. When I have more to share, I’ll be sure to do so.” Gorbea quickly moved to endorse McKee, and Foulkes did likewise Friday, she said in a statement, after gaining the governor’s personal promise that his next budget proposal will extend abortion coverage to include women on Medicaid and the state employee health plan. While a certain amount of awkwardness typically marks events like a Sunday evening Democratic unity gathering at the Crowne Plaza in Warwick, the stated purpose – recognizing U.S. Rep. Jim Langevin as he prepares to leave office after 22 years – will shift the focus a bit.
33% SOLUTION: The way in which McKee won the primary with far less than 50% of the vote is rekindling conversation about whether Rhode Island should adopt ranked choice voting or some other approach. Back in 2018, Gina Raimondo won the general election with 52.6% of the vote, becoming the first gov to top the 50% threshold since Republican Don Carcieri in 2006.
SHOWDOWN I: With the primary over, Republican candidate for governor Ashley Kalus has wasted little time in escalating her campaign against Gov. McKee. Her campaign launched new ads, focused on inflation and “the McKee-Biden agenda” and the ILO Group educational consulting contract controversy. Kalus also challenged McKee to four broadcast debates before the start of early voting. While the GOP candidate has boosted her recognition by advertising heavily in recent months, she now faces more scrutiny as a candidate, on local and national topics, and an independent expenditure group backed by the Democratic Governors Association is running an ad criticizing Kalus’ stance on abortion rights.
In one example of how national GOP issues are at play in Rhode Island, Kalus did not offer a direct response when I asked this week whether she supported Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis – previously cited as her role model – on his move to ship immigrants to Martha’s Vineyard. “Like many Rhode Islanders, my family traces our lives in the United States to a welcoming, fair, legal immigration system,” she said in a statement. “I have benefited immensely from the opportunities given to me by this country. I strongly believe that, as in all matters of the public debate, immigration is about balance. While this is largely a federal matter, I believe that our elected leaders must ensure we remain a welcoming nation of opportunity. At the same time, protecting the public safety is the most important job of the governor. We must ensure our borders are secure and our communities are safe. In my view, immigration is what makes America strong, innovative, and prosperous. We are the greatest country in the world. We have a duty to get this balance right.”
McKee’s campaign responded with this statement: “Ashley Kalus has said Ron DeSantis is her role model. And now he is engaging in the worst type of politics — playing on hate and fear and using refugees as political pawns. That type of behavior might work where Ashley Kalus is from, but it’s not our Rhode Island values. As long as Dan McKee is governor, he will keep Ron DeSantis and his hateful politics out of Rhode Island and focus on real solutions to our problems, not hateful political stunts.”
SHOWDOWN II: The general election tilt between Republican Allan Fung and Democrat Seth Magaziner is also off to a fast start. Backed by strong name recognition and a strong campaign account, Magaziner emerged from a six-way Democratic primary with 54% of the vote. One group aligned with Fung, the Congressional Leadership Fund Super PAC, is up with an ad describing Magaziner as a “silver spoon elitist” trying to buy his way into Congress. Magaziner has his own ad, linking Fung with Donald Trump and Kevin McCarthy and the insurrection on January 6.
GENERAL ASSEMBLY: The Rhode Island Political Cooperative’s stated goal of creating “a whole new government” fizzled during the primary. House Speaker Joe Shekarchi and Senate President Dominick Ruggerio easily defeated RPC-backed candidates, with Shekarchi getting almost 70% of the vote in his race. Co-op co-founder Jennifer Rourke, whose rising profile in the aftermath of a Statehouse fracas led Senate Majority Leader Michael McCaffrey (D-Warwick) to not seek re-election, won her primary race, and RCP-backed Jennifer Stewart defeated Rep. Jean Philippe Barros (D-Pawtucket). Elsewhere, though, the Cooperative was roundly defeated, and another co-founder, Matt Brown, got just 8% of the vote for governor. This is not to say, though, that the election was a washout for progressives. Sen. Tiara Mack and Rep. Brianna Henries defended their seats. Cherie Cruz and Victoria Gu, both backed by the RI Working Families Party, won their primary races, and there were progressive wins by Linda Ujafusa and Pam Laurie. The Providence chapter of Democratic Socialists of America hailed victories by four candidates: Sen. Sam Bell and Rep. David Morales, both of Providence, joined by Rep-elect Enrique Sanchez — who defeated 29-year incumbent Rep. Anastasia Williams – and Ward 6 Providence councilor-elect Miguel Sanchez. And the General Assembly has moved noticeably to the left in recent election cycles, with more progressives, more women, and more lawmakers of color, so this comment from lefty activist and podcaster Daniel Denvir is worth noting: “Whatever an org or elected’s approach, Speaker @JoeShekarchi has shown major openness to prog legislation. This assessment is itself controversial on RI Left but I think just true. With balance of power now tilted yet further Left I think we can get big things done next session.”
CITY HAUL: Brett Smiley will be the next mayor of Providence, since he outpaced fellow Democrats Gonzalo Cuervo and Nirva LaFortune in the primary and does not face any general election opponents. Smiley joined me this week for a wide-ranging interview on Political Roundtable: Election 2022. “I absolutely would keep that door wide open,” Smiley said when asked whether there might be a place in his administration for Cuervo and LaFortune. The mayor-in-waiting was non-committal on whether City Council President John Igliozzi, who will be leaving office due to term limits, may wind up with a City Hall job.
A few highlights from our interview:
PROVIDENCE SCHOOLS: “[T]he state took a big step in taking over the schools, that we’ve not yet seen progress from that takeover. That’s something that hasn’t been tried before. In the years since it started, we faced a global pandemic, we lost the governor who started it. And so I’ve already talked to Governor McKee, about meeting shortly to get the takeover back on track, I hope to have a seat at that table so that we can actually finish that plan. You know, one of our fundamental challenges in our education system is our inability to actually finish any of these reform plans of which there have been many over the last several decades. And so my plan, and my message is to stay the course and actually finish the plan.”
WHAT UNIONS WILL LOOK FOR AFTER SUPPORTING GOV. MCKEE: “Oh, I, I don’t know what their expectations are, what their commitments were. I know that I received the support of several labor unions. And the reason that I had is because I have a track record. You know, my experience working with labor leaders is that what they want is a fair deal, good communication, and somebody who keeps their word and trust and is integral to the process. It’s — I never begrudge a union for asking for as much as they can for their members. It’s the public official’s responsibility to say no, here’s what the public can afford, what the taxpayers can afford. And of all the labor contracts that I ever negotiated, nobody ever got exactly what they wanted. But with me, they knew that they always got a fair deal, they always got a straight answer. And I kept my word, and that’s my plan as mayor.”
PUBLIC SAFETY: “I respect the work of the Providence police. And I believe their data, don’t get me wrong. But there are too many people in Providence, who feel unsafe. And there is a perception that Providence is unsafe, and perception can become reality. We want people throughout Rhode Island, throughout the region, to want to come to Providence, to want to enjoy our fabulous restaurants, to go to the theater, to come shop, to enjoy what we know makes Providence so great. And so we have to change that perception. And we need to change that perception through you know, I think better leadership in the mayor’s office to really sell Providence, but also through the visible presence of people in positions of authority, not just the police officers, but including here. You know, we’re in downtown Providence right now, people like the DID, the people in the yellow jackets, just so that people who are visiting Providence can feel like this is a safe city that it’s safe to come and enjoy everything that we have to offer.”
HEALTHCARE: Campaigns come and campaigns go, but the challenges facing Rhode Island’s healthcare landscape defy easy solutions. So note excerpts from this news release from Lifespan EVP and Chief Financial Officer David Kirshner [emphasis in original]:
“Lifespan reported a net loss of $49 million for the third quarter ended June 30, 2022. Lifespan’s operating loss and net loss for the nine-month period ending June 30, 2022, was $69.5M and $142M, respectively. Lifespan is not alone, as hospitals across the country continue to be financially challenged by the labor shortage, increased cost of supplies and overall inflation, and lower than typical patient volume, particularly due to a decline in elective surgeries and bed closures. The impact of these issues was somewhat mitigated by government ARPA funding ($20.9 million), but we anticipate that this level of support is unlikely to continue going forward ….
“Now, more than ever, investments in our health care system are needed to ensure our long-term stability. While we continue to prioritize investments in the resources that allow us to offer excellent care, the health care system in Rhode Island is in crisis. We need the support of business, community and state leaders at this critical time that shares our goals to keep excellent care and jobs in Rhode Island. Investments in our health care system will ensure we can take care of our community and remain a strong economic engine for our state and be prepared for future waves of COVID or another public health crisis.”
KICKER: Out Riding for Erika – Year 2, a great way to remember our late friend Erika Niedowksi, is coming up on Oct. 15.
Ian Donnis can be reached at idonnis@ripr.org
