The possibility of recession, shrinking gambling revenue, and a big fight over Rhode Island’s top gambling vendor – what could possibly go wrong? Thanks for stopping by for my weekly column. As usual, your tips and comments are welcome, and you can follow me through the week on the twitters. Here we go.
1) Gambling has long been a golden goose in Rhode Island, providing a steady revenue stream and helping to compensate for some of the softness in the state’s economy. But competition has been steadily increasing, and now Encore Boston is cited as the reason for a year-to-year decline in the take from video lottery terminals and table games at Twin River. The state has responded by removing 360 of IGT’s VLTs, a move that Lottery says will result in better slot performance. But does Rhode Island have an effective strategy for maintaining one of its largest revenue sources? “I’m not sure there’s a whole lot we can do,” state Rep. Brian Newberry (R-North Smithfield) said on Political Roundtable this week. “I mean, Twin River has to compete with these other entities, and they’re going to do the best they can. But you’ve got online gambling, people gamble from their homes, they do sports betting on the phones. There’s a limit to what you can do when your market is saturated — no matter what it is. There’s a limit to growth and we as a state need to adjust our spending priorities based on that.” For their part, House Speaker Nicholas Mattiello and Senate President Dominick Ruggerio offered this comment in a joint statement: “It has long been anticipated that competition in Massachusetts would have an impact on gaming revenue in Rhode Island. We have confidence in Twin River’s ability to adapt to the new competition, but we will monitor the situation carefully.”
2) Meanwhile, the high-stakes fight between IGT and Twin River — over providing the bulk of the Rhode Island’s gambling services — continues to run hot, with Republicans offering some of the most outspoken criticism of Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo’s stance that maintaining IGT jobs is vital. Here’s Rep. Newberry on Roundtable: “There’s no reason this should be a no-bid contract [for IGT]. There’s absolutely no reason for that. Look, I know they’re threatening, ‘Oh, if we don’t do a no-bid contract, we’re going to take people out of here.’ Look, I’m tired of being held up by private business trying to cut special deals with the state – enough of that. That’s not how you prosper economically. You prosper economically by creating an even business climate playing field that’s favorable to everybody.” Meanwhile, RI GOP National Committeeman Steve Frias writes in the Cranston Herald about what he calls the impending decline of RI’s casinos: “Flexibility is valuable in times of uncertainty. With Rhode Island casinos entering an era of decline, lawmakers should avoid locking taxpayers into a no-bid contract that would give IGT 85 percent of video slot machines at Rhode Island casinos until 2043.”
3) It looks more and more like U.S. Rep. Joe Kennedy of Massachusetts will stage a primary challenge to U.S. Sen. Ed Markey next year. Kennedy made his first public comments on the issue this week. My former Phoenix colleague David S. Bernstein offers this analysis as part of a smart Twitter thread: “The political problem for Joe is that there are two pols in the state who can give him a race statewide: Maura Healey, and Ayanna Pressley in another couple of years. Healey might be looking at Senate, esp now that Charlie is talking 3rd term. AP is definitely eying Senate. So if Joe waits, his path to a Senate seat, whenever it might come, almost certainly goes through a popular, celebrity-level, next-gen woman. That’s a bad match-up for him. Shoving Markey aside, as distasteful as it might be, is his best move.”
4) While U.S. Rep. Jim Langevin remains focused on his current role, he could be a game-changer as a candidate in Rhode Island’s 2022 race for governor. So far, the talk on the Democratic side of that race has focused on a large field that could include General Treasurer Seth Magaziner, Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea, Lt. Gov. Dan McKee, Providence Mayor Jorge Elorza and perhaps Attorney General Peter Neronha (who has downplayed his interest in a possible run). There’s also the wild card posed by Jeff Grybowski, the former Deepwater Wind CEO and CoS for former GOP Gov. Don Carcieri, who is reportedly mulling running as a Democrat. Asked about running as a D, Grybowski didn’t knock down such talk: “[F]or the record, like many Rhode Islanders, I have been unaffiliated for a long time,” he tells me. Let’s return to Langevin. For now, the 10-term incumbent faces re-election next year. And while there’s a broad expectation that Rhode Island will lose one of its two congressional seats after the next Census, there’s at least a small chance that the status quo will endure. (Another consideration is whether Democrats retain the U.S. House and whether there are opportunities to move up in the chamber.) Yet if one of the two U.S. House seats is eliminated, Langevin, 55, could certainly turn his attention to the Statehouse. He would enter a race for governor with excellent name-recognition, a vote-rich geographic base in Warwick, a proven ability to fundraise, and not inconceivably, strong support from RI’s Democratic establishment and potential rival U.S. Rep. David Cicilline. A defining elements of his bio is how Langevin, the first quadriplegic to serve in the House, built a career in politics after being injured in an accidental shooting at age 16. For now, 2022 is a long way off, and both Langevin and Cicilline call talk about what might happen with redistricting as premature. Yet in a large field of Democratic gubernatorial hopefuls, Langevin would start with some major advantages.
5) With the deadline next Wednesday for registering an objection to the state takeover of Providence schools, RI Education Commissioner Angélica Infante-Green is still choosing her words carefully. The overarching question about the takeover is how Infante-Green and the RI Department of Education will try to prioritize and track progress on an array of complex problems, ranging from low expectations for students to concerns about safety and the poor condition of school buildings. Asked about this during an interview set to air Tuesday on The Public’s Radio, Infante-Green cited the example of how a “nudge tool” will be used to track absenteeism among students and teachers. Pressed on the question, the commissioner cited how data systems on RIDE’s web site will be used to track different details in Providence and elsewhere. She said individual schools will also be asked to create a school culture document, encompassing topics ranging from instruction to how students are greeted at the door. Classes start Tuesday in Providence. Barring objections to the state takeover (slated for late October or early November), the changes being put in place will become increasingly evident.
6) Short takes from Commissioner Infante-Green: 1) She said Rhode Island will turn to a Smithsonian Science Education Center initiative to help Providence build a workforce of teachers who more closely resemble the student body; 2) Infante-Green said RIDE will be doing a financial and human resources audit of the Providence district, “so we have a better handle. It’s not just what I think, but that we have audience of what’s happening;” 3) With Providence Mayor Jorge Elorza facing criticism from a Wall Street Journal editorial regarding his stance on Achievement First, Infante-Green said charter schools are an important part of the mix. To critics who say charters leave some kids behind, she says: “Well, I think we’ve left behind entire communities, right? When we’re in a system where only 10 percent of the kids can do math on grade-level, we have left behind over 24,000 students …. We’ve left everybody behind. That’s just where we are.”
7) Rep. Newberry has been outspoken on social media about how the House progressive caucus, in his view, squandered their hand in the 2019 General Assembly session. I asked him on Bonus Q&A how he thinks things might have turned out differently. Newberry said it’s hard to predict that, but “they made, collectively, a terrible political error. They came out the night before the [November 2018] election, they said, ‘we’re not going to support the speaker for re-election.’ That’s fine. I mean, on principle you can take that position …. Once you make a promise, a public statement, you better stand by it. So they did that. And then of course they didn’t. They get frozen out. They didn’t like that. And then what happened, predictably, was, the speaker went – he’s got the power to do this and I would have done the same thing if I were him, I’m not criticizing him; He peeled them off one by one at the beginning and then the rest of them caved in. And so now, if they take a stand, they have no credibility …. Had they stuck together, we had the votes to prevent a budget vote in June. They could have held out to June and we could have gotten real significant rules reform, not just the minor tweaks we got. But they fell apart ….”
8) A lot of people love the idea of an express train between Providence and Boston. The concept could relieve traffic in the Hub, bring more residents and vitality to Rhode Island, and foster closer connections between the two cities. But will it ever happen? Via a Boston Globe editorial: “Broadly speaking, there are only three ways to speed up the Providence Line’s commuter schedule. The first two are straightforward: The trains could make fewer stops, or they could spend less time at the station during each stop. Skipping stops doesn’t add any new costs, and that’s how the T achieved the once-daily express round trip that zips between Worcester and Boston. The nonstop trains take nearly a half-hour less than trains that make stops at the intermediate stations on the Worcester Line. The 8 a.m. morning train averages 266 passengers daily, while the evening train averages only 70. Nonstops are what Raimondo initially proposed for the Providence Line back in 2017. But that strategy would have had downsides. Converting current trips to nonstops from Providence would mean fewer train options for riders in Attleboro, Mansfield, and Sharon.”
9) Rhode Island communities like Newport are hardly immune to Airbnb, which has cut hotel tax revenue, sparked worries about affordable housing, and in some cases, changed the ambience of residential neighborhoods. As NPR reports, a startup called Host Compliance is helping some communities to respond to such concerns.
10) While more wind-related companies are coming to Rhode Island, the Trump administration’s decision to delay the Vineyard Wind project will hinder the developer’s ability to use a big federal tax credit that expires in December. Via my colleague Nadine Sebai: “Democratic lawmakers say the administration’s decision was a political move to stall the project and could endanger the future growth of the industry. Lawmakers are scrambling to pass legislation to get the tax credit extended. But some industry observers say offshore wind may be able to survive just fine without it. Vineyard Wind, developer for the country’s first major offshore wind farm, had everything going for it this year. It secured over a handful of permits and was one of the first offshore wind developers that could take advantage of a federal investment tax credit worth millions of dollars. That credit helped the developer negotiate a contract with three Massachusetts utilities to sell power at a very cheap price: 8.9 cents per kilowatt-hour.”
11) RI poli/media people on the move: Best wishes to Mark S. Murphy, who is giving up the editor’s job at PBN to lead the Chafee Center for International Business at Bryant University. Under Murphy’s watch, PBN has been a training ground for such talents as the ProJo’s Patrick Anderson, and Ted Nesi and Eli Sherman of WPRI … Stuart Malec, communications director for U.S. Rep. Jim Langevin, is leaving his job at the end of September to pursue a longtime ambition of working on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. Malec, a Connecticut native who roots for the Yankees, called Langevin a wonderful boss and exemplary public servant. But, he said, he’s at a time in his life when he wants to move to DC. (Langevin’s comms position has long been based in RI.) Malec interned for Langevin in 2014 as a senior at URI and joined the congressman’s staff the next year. He said he’s chasing a few leads for a new gig, with help from Langevin.
12) Westerly native Graham Vyse (who is an excellent journalistic talent in search of a new reporting gig, due to the demise of Governing) returned for a recent visit to Rhode Island. Here’s his dispatch for TGIF: I live in the swampy summer humidity of Washington, D.C., so I was happy to come north for the Olde Tyme Fair last Saturday at Wilcox Park in downtown Westerly, where thousands showed up to celebrate my hometown’s 350th anniversary year. We had beautiful weather for the festivities, including a fully costumed Beatles tribute band and a miniature train, the Roger Williams Express, giving rides to children. Swan boats evoking those in Boston’s Public Garden carried passengers across the pond behind the gazebo, where my late grandfather played his trombone for years with the Westerly Band. Westerly was historically known for its granite and stone-cutting industries. Today it’s a center for the arts and culture, including the celebrated Chorus of Westerly founded by longtime URI music professor George Kent, which welcomed me and three generations of my family into its ranks as singers. Philanthropist Chuck Royce, who restored the town’s Ocean House resort, is in the process of transforming the long-vacant United Theatre into a regional arts hub. But the town is first and foremost one of Rhode Island’s great beach communities. Just this month, The New York Times raved about the shorelines of Weekapaug, Misquamicut and Watch Hill. Our celebrity residents and tourists have included Albert Einstein, Frank Sinatra, Hillary Clinton and Conan O’Brien. Our most famous part-time resident these days, of course, is Taylor Swift, who owns a Watch Hill mansion on the shore and recently told a disbelieving Ellen DeGeneres that Rhode Island is her favorite place to vacation. The pop star values her privacy at her Rhody retreat, and she memorably slapped her own song lyrics on a no-trespassing sign fronting the property: “I knew you were trouble when you walked in.”
13) “Streaming Video Will Soon Look Like the Bad Old Days of TV”
14) Scott MacKay on why Quonset is an Ocean State success story: “For business, a major attraction of the park is that utilities, roads and the port and rail connections are all in one space. The park is well-planned and a new business can get a quick decision on a site. There is no interference from the town or other political entities and scant red tape. Business leaders often complain about not-in-my-backyard issues and nettlesome local zoning regulations. There is none of that here. There are also features few industrial parks boast. There’s a shopping center and function rooms at the former navy officers club. And even a well-maintained public golf course run by the town. Town-park relations are good, says Steve King, the park’s managing director. The park gives the town a strong tax base. The town provides police and fire services. Yet unlike housing developments, the park doesn’t put a burden on schools.”
15) As PBS NewsHour reported this week, physicians are increasingly prescribing outdoor walks to help people deal with the pressure of contemporary life. As one doctor said in the segment, “We see so many things that we don’t have tools for. And family stress right now is something that it’s — all those chronic illnesses happening in pediatrics. I mean, I didn’t go into pediatrics to deal with like high blood pressure and issues that I deal with all the time now, or anxiety or depression. And so I think that nature and this idea of park prescriptions is empowering to me.”
