Question of the week: how much will things change once the crisis is over? As always, I welcome your tips and comments, and you can follow me through the week on the twitters. Here we go.
1) While no one can say how long the coronavirus crisis will be with us, it’s already sending shock waves through the economy in Rhode Island — and elsewhere. The situation is so extreme that the skyrocketing jobless claims that took off on Monday (and trailed off a bit as the week went on) are unprecedented in recent decades – a period that includes Black Monday, the state banking crisis, and the Great Recession. While a series of relief packages are in the DC pipeline, the economic hurt is widespread and will have a lasting effect. Rhode Island’s budget outlook, already marked by perennial deficits, is reeling from the scenario. Just the closing of Twin River’s two casinos represents about a $14 million revenue hit over two weeks. The moving back of the federal tax deadline will worsen the outlook, since the state needs to match that timing. And there are so many questions – how, for example, will RI lawmakers meet if they need to vote on emergency legislation? Welcome to the uncertainties of our new world.
2) While the fallout will be with us for a long time, Gov. Gina Raimondo has offered a reassuring presence during her daily press briefings. She’s praised the generosity of Rhode Islanders, offered updates (the number of positive cases climbed by 10, to 54, as of Friday), and calmly repeated that the Ocean State will make it through this. To be sure, this is making lemonade from some of the worst lemons a political leader can encounter, since the fiscal legacy of the coronavirus will ripple forward and wipe out any number of state-based initiatives. Still, there’s value in someone in power saying that things will eventually be okay. The current moment has also offered a spotlight for state Health Director Dr. Nicole Alexander-Scott, who has delivered clear, straightforward information and advice.
3) During her briefing Friday, Governor Raimondo sounded an optimistic note that the bottoming out of the crisis may be in sight – while also calling this weekend a vital one for Rhode Islanders to remain in their homes and maintain social distancing. Will that optimistic note be well placed? Part of the problem is no one knows how many positive coronavirus cases Rhode Island really has. While the state is ramping up its testing regimen, the answer to that question could still be a distance away.
4) While the shadow of 38 Studios has taken years to dispel, the state credit union crisis of 1991 was a more palpable reference point for the current crisis. That was a time when depositors temporarily couldn’t get access to their money and angry citizens marched on the Statehouse. Not coincidentally, Raimondo on Thursday expressed complete confidence in banks and credit unions. And this via joint statement: “The Rhode Island Bankers Association (RIBA) and Cooperative Credit Union Association (CCUA) announced a collaborative effort today on behalf of their customers, members and communities, to publicly reinforce the safety, security and reliability of financial services throughout the state.”
5) An NPR scoop: weeks before the panic over the virus, U.S. Sen. Richard Burr, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, warned a small group of affluent North Carolinians to prepare for the dire economic fallout – and he sold a bunch of stocks.
6) Like other news organizations, The Public’s Radio has had to make some adjustments in response to what’s happening. We remain on the air 24/7/365, with local, national and international reports, and updates on our web site. A PSA from your humble correspondent: try to get enough sleep, exercise and eat well. Take a break from the news when you need to. Go for a walk. Be kind to the people around you.
7) While all of us are being affected in ways big and little by the situation, the impact on Rhode Island restaurants and other small businesses is particularly heart-rending. Food mensch James Mark of North tweeted this: “I just paid February’s sales and meals tax, and I have $0.66 left in our restaurant account. I’ll be using money my family has been squirreling away for my daughters college fund to restart things. Wondering if that makes me a monster. Tax deferment could have been something.” Meanwhile, in another sign of the hurt, Benjamin Sukle, owner of birch/Oberlin, set up an employee relief fund. Via email, he wrote: This past week has been the toughest of my career. On Sunday, in light of the current Covid-19 pandemic, I made the decision to close both birch and Oberlin and notified my 30+ employees that they no longer had jobs. Some of these people have been with me since day one at birch, and some of them are brand new to our team. Each one of them now finds themselves in a precarious position of no income and no terminal date for their temporary unemployment. If you have already reached out to ask how you can help, thank you from the bottom of my heart. In the last few days, I have added t-shirts and gift cards for both restaurants (follow the link to Oberlin’s merch page), and yesterday I launched a gofundme campaign to raise funds for birch and Oberlin’s teams. 100% of the money raised here will be disbursed to our front and back of house teams in the hopes that this may help them in this time of uncertainty. For now, we are taking each day as it comes and deeply hoping for the best possible outcome. Even in the best case scenario, we are looking at an extended closure and an SBA loan that may be able to help with fixed costs until we are able to reopen our doors, whenever that may be. Until then, we are keeping our eyes peeled for daily updates from Governor Raimondo, and truly weathering this storm.” (Here’s a useful list of restaurants offering takeout and online ordering, via David Dadekian.)
8) Local historian Steve Frias looks at the current moment through the prism of the 1918 Spanish influenza epidemic. Excerpt: What happened in Rhode Island during the influenza pandemic mirrored what occurred in other communities. Two lessons can be learned from this tragedy. First, be honest with the public. Tell the truth, the whole truth. In ‘The Great Influenza,’ historian John Barry wrote that: “The media and public officials helped create the terror-not by exaggerating the disease but by minimizing it.” He explained: ‘As terrifying as the disease was, the press made it more so. They terrified by making little of it … People could not trust what they read. Uncertainly follows distrust, fear follows uncertainty, and under conditions such as these, terror follows fear.’ Second, take early drastic measures to contain the spread of the virus. Shutdown, lockdown.”
9) Live by the sword, die by the sword. That expression comes to mind in terms of the vital role that Twin River plays in generating state revenue. While it would be nice if Rhode Island had more of the multifaceted economy of a bigger city such as Boston, the simple fact is that without gambling revenue, the state has a lot less money. That is especially true now that Twin Rivers’ two sites, in Lincoln and Tiverton, are – like most things in Rhode Island – shut down. In a statement, the company said it’s “proactively and carefully managing expenses to ensure that it has sufficient liquidity to last through these uncertain times,” while also, among other things, focusing on the sanitizatng of its properties.
10) Politico talked with 34 prominent thinkers on how the coronavirus will change things.
11) My colleague Alex Nunes reports on some of the psychological fallout of our current moment. Here’s advice from one local psychiatrist: “What I tell all people is that we have to focus on what we can control. That can involve appropriate preparations such as hand-washing, social distancing. I really tell people to primarily listen to what the CDC is recommending. It’s important to note that sometimes, when our anxiety goes overboard, we can try to do things that actually aren’t helpful at all. Why right now are people hoarding toilet paper, where that has nothing at all to do with a virus? Sometimes people feel that they just need to do something as a way to cope with their anxiety even though it’s not necessarily helpful.”
12) FEMA head Pete Gaynor, the former EMA director for Providence and the state, is at the center of the storm.
13) Et tu, Tom Brady?
14) A survivor’s story: A Seattle woman talks with NPR’s Steve Inskeep about her recovery from coronavirus.
15) Non-coronavirus news: Sen. Adam Satchell (D-West Warwick), who was first elected in 2012 (when he defeated Michael Pinga), tells me he will not seeking re-election, most because he needs more time for his personal and professional commitments. Satchell said he takes satisfaction in having advocated for his community and for education – an issue whose value was demonstrated, he said, in his own family. While Satchell said he does not plan to endorse a successor, it remains to be seen if Patricia Morgan, the former rep and former GOP chairwoman, makes a play for the open seat. She tells me she’s undecided on her plans.
16) Since no one has any idea when the General Assembly will come back, does remote voting offer a fix? This story in the Intercept quotes activist and former Rep David Segal, who’s been banging the drum on the subject: “This crisis will only worsen. It’s naive to assume that it will be possible to reconvene in a few weeks, so legislatures must make necessary changes to procedures now.”
17) How artists and performers are struggling in a world where everything is cancelled.
18) Why soap is so effective against the coronavirus. So have a nice weekend, wash your hands and don’t touch your face.
