Campaign staffers are turning private polling data into personal paydays. They describe election prediction market as a “Wild West” for staffers.
prediction markets
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NPR went looking for Polymarket’s Panama headquarters. It’s elusive
The hugely popular prediction market was shut down by U.S. regulators in 2022 and re-opened in Panama, where it has benefited from tax and legal benefits for years.
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U.S. soldier charged with suspected Polymarket insider trading over Maduro raid
It’s the first time suspected insider trading on Polymarket has led to criminal charges in the U.S.
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French police probe suspected weather device tampering after odd Polymarket bet
The incident is the latest eyebrow-raising bet on Polymarket, as allegations of rigging and manipulation continue to haunt the popular prediction market site.
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Is anyone gonna do anything about these Iran War trades?
Traders have made millions betting on the Iran War. They are also suspiciously timed. No public information, then boom: a Truth Social post from President Trump. Cue fat windfalls for the traders. It’s starting to look a lot like insider trading.Â
On today’s show, suspicious bets on the Iran War. And are federal regulators or prosecutors looking into these trades … is anyone?
Come see Planet Money live on stage! 12 cities. Details and tix here: planetmoneybook.com/#tour
Related episodes:Â
Did Trump enable insider trading?
Do traders who place big bets make big money?
How much is the Iran war costing us?
For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Fact-checking by Sierra Juarez. Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter.
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Trump administration sues three states over attempts to regulate prediction markets
The suits are the most ambitious effort to date that the Trump administration has gone to try to override state laws and set the rules for the fast-growing and increasingly divisive betting industry.
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Arizona AG files criminal charges against Kalshi over ‘illegal gambling’
Arizona is the first state to allege the prediction market company has committed criminal violations, accusing it of running an unlicensed gambling operation.
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The Kalshi and Polymarket CEO feud: They hate each other
The 20-something billionaires who run Kalshi and Polymarket are battling it out to be the top prediction market company. Observers and former insiders say the feud is just heating up.
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Kalshi reveals insider trading case against editor for MrBeast
With prediction markets booming, so have concerns about insider trading. Now, Kalshi has disclosed its first public actions against accounts suspected of trading on confidential information.
Posted inNPR
TV antennas and Super Bowl rehearsals: How prediction market traders seek an edge
As prediction markets boom, competition is heating up. So traders go the extra mile for a fraction-of-a-second advantage or to sleuth out information nobody else has. It can lead to a huge payday.
