prediction markets Archives - TPR: The Public's Radio

A Kashmiri man scrolls through a social media post featuring Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on his phone in Srinagar on June 28, 2025.

NPR

Is anyone gonna do anything about these Iran War trades?

by Ricky Mulvey April 20, 2026April 20, 2026

Traders have made millions betting on the Iran War. They are also suspiciously timed. No public information, then boom: a Truth Social post from President Trump. Cue fat windfalls for the traders. It’s starting to look a lot like insider trading.

On today’s show, suspicious bets on the Iran War. And are federal regulators or prosecutors looking into these trades … is anyone?

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An app for Kalshi, an online prediction market site, is shown on a phone. Multiple states have tried to block the company from operating, citing state gambling laws. But the federal government has sued to block those state laws to allow Kalshi and other prediction markets to operate.

NPR

Trump administration sues three states over attempts to regulate prediction markets

by Bobby Allyn April 2, 2026April 2, 2026

The suits are the most ambitious effort to date that the Trump administration has gone to try to override state laws and set the rules for the fast-growing and increasingly divisive betting industry.

Prosecutors in Arizona filed criminal charges on Monday against Kalshi, an online prediction market site.

NPR

Arizona AG files criminal charges against Kalshi over ‘illegal gambling’

by Bobby Allyn March 17, 2026March 17, 2026

Arizona is the first state to allege the prediction market company has committed criminal violations, accusing it of running an unlicensed gambling operation.

Polymarket's Shayne Coplan (left) and Kalshi's Tarek Mansour are two 20-something billionaires who run the biggest prediction market sites.

NPR

The Kalshi and Polymarket CEO feud: They hate each other

by Bobby Allyn March 6, 2026March 6, 2026

The 20-something billionaires who run Kalshi and Polymarket are battling it out to be the top prediction market company. Observers and former insiders say the feud is just heating up.

An editor who worked for YouTube creator MrBeast(AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File)

NPR

Kalshi reveals insider trading case against editor for MrBeast

by Bobby Allyn February 25, 2026February 25, 2026

With prediction markets booming, so have concerns about insider trading. Now, Kalshi has disclosed its first public actions against accounts suspected of trading on confidential information.

Standing in front of an electronic keyboard set up on a football field, singer Charlie Puth performs the national anthem ahead of this year's Super Bowl on February 8.

NPR

TV antennas and Super Bowl rehearsals: How prediction market traders seek an edge

by Bobby Allyn February 17, 2026February 17, 2026

As prediction markets boom, competition is heating up. So traders go the extra mile for a fraction-of-a-second advantage or to sleuth out information nobody else has. It can lead to a huge payday.

Advertisements for Kalshi in New York City predicted a victory for Zohran Mamdani in the city's mayoral election before the votes were counted and polls closed on Nov. 4, 2025.

NPR

Kalshi in court over 19 federal lawsuits. What’s the future of prediction markets?

by Bobby Allyn January 30, 2026January 30, 2026

Apps that let people wager on current events have experienced explosive growth in Trump’s second term. But one of the leading markets is tied up in lawsuits that cloud the industry’s future.

NPR

They quit their day jobs to bet on current events. A look inside the prediction market mania

by Bobby Allyn January 17, 2026January 17, 2026

Prediction market apps are thriving in Trump’s second term, with traders betting on migrant deportations to election outcomes. A community of young, mostly male and very online traders are driving the industry’s bonanza.

A supporter of ousted Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro carry his portrait during a rally outside the National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026.

NPR

A $400,000 profit on Maduro’s capture raises insider trading questions on Polymarket

by Bobby Allyn January 5, 2026January 5, 2026

Online sleuths have tried to uncover who placed a winning bet on the Venezuelan leader’s arrest to no avail. Still, prediction market watchers say the bet appears suspicious.