As Republicans and Democrats gear up for the midterm elections next year, they’re each losing ground with a group that may be key in determining control of Congress: young voters.
Gen Z and millennial Americans are a growing portion of the electorate, estimated to make up roughly half of all eligible voters by 2026. However, these same voters are also feeling increasingly unhappy with the political system that they’re poised to dominate in the coming years, notably as they struggle with the high cost of living.
That’s reflected in a new poll from the University of Chicago, which shows that nearly 60% disapprove of President Trump’s job in office, while just 30% approve, a six-point drop compared to his favorability rating in the survey last year.
The University of Chicago’s GenForward survey, first obtained by NPR, also paints a sobering picture for both parties ahead of the midterms. Support for Democrats has dropped substantially since last year, with the latest survey finding that roughly six in 10 young people now have unfavorable impressions of both parties.
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University of Chicago professor Cathy Cohen is the founder and director of the GenForward Survey. She argues that the political dissatisfaction young people are feeling is directly tied to their deeply rooted concerns about the economy.
“There is a real sense that these individuals and these parts of the administration are not delivering,” explained Cohen. “Young people are feeling like the state or the government is not, in fact, providing the opportunities that they’re seeking to advance their lives.”
The latest GenForward survey — conducted Oct. 24 through Nov. 10 — draws on 5,390 interviews with white, Black, Latino, and Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) Americans between the ages of 18 and 42.
Respondents were most likely to prioritize issues concerning affordability as the most important challenges facing the country today. Nearly nine in 10 were concerned about the price of food and the cost of healthcare. Roughly a quarter reported feeling extremely or very worried about being able to pay their mortgage or rent, while about a third believe they will be worse off financially than their parents.
That collective financial worry isn’t new — especially as home and rental prices have climbed at a faster pace than wages for roughly 20 years, and Gen Z and millennials report higher rates of student loan debt and more mortgage debt.
The economy has long defined elections, and 2024 was no exception. Many young Americans cast their ballots in the presidential race for Trump on account of his pledge to address inflation, helping him narrow Democrats’ typical advantage among millennial and Gen Z voters.
The early outlook for 2026
Heading into 2026, the GenForward survey gives Democrats an early leg up. When respondents were asked who they would choose on a generic congressional ballot between Democrats and Republicans, Democrats lead by 15 points. However, roughly 3 in 10 either rejected both options or vowed to choose a third-party instead.
That call for political variety is loud — more than 80% of young Americans said they agreed with the statement that Democrats and Republicans “do such a poor job representing the American people that voters need more political party choices.”
The findings comes at a time when many Gen Z and millennial Americans already distrust American institutions and their ability to make change — a point reflected in the poll, as nearly 70% say they have little to no trust in the Trump administration or Congress.
However, to Cohen, that distrust connects back to how young Americans are feeling about their economic opportunities. She points out that when asked about factors needed to make democracy work well in the U.S., 33% chose housing and food affordability, the top selection after the need for free and fair elections at 41%.
“These young people are saying that without the ability to have full lives, they can’t be full citizens,” she said. “They’re rejecting this idea that we should kind of separate or bifurcate discussions of democracy from discussions of affordability.”
Transcript:
AILSA CHANG, HOST:
Gen Z and millennials are expected to make up about half of all eligible voters next year. It’s a group that typically voted in large numbers for Democrats. But Republicans were able to narrow that gap in 2024. Now, how they vote in 2026 could be key in determining control of Congress. Joining us now to talk about all of this is NPR political reporter Elena Moore. Hi, Elena.
ELENA MOORE, BYLINE: Hey, Ailsa.
CHANG: OK, so what do we know about what’s going on with the youth vote right now?
MOORE: Yeah, I mean, a lot of folks are unhappy with politics. And that’s spelled out pretty clearly in a new GenForward survey from the University of Chicago, which was first obtained by NPR. It surveyed more than 5,000 Americans between the ages of 18 and 42 and found that nearly 60% disapprove of President Trump’s job in office. And on the flip side, only 30% approve. And that’s a six-point drop compared to his favorability rating this time last year.
CHANG: OK, well, that’s about Trump. But we’re less than a year away from the midterms, at this point. What did they say about Democrats and Republicans in Congress?
MOORE: Yeah, well, the results do paint a sobering picture for both parties. When folks were asked who they’d choose on a generic congressional ballot, you know, Democrats or Republicans, Democrats lead by 15 points. But there are some caveats here. You know, young people’s support for Democrats has dropped pretty dramatically since last year. And now roughly 6 in 10 have unfavorable impressions of both the Democrats and the Republicans. There’s also just a loud call for more party options. You know, pollsters asked respondents if they agreed with the statement that both Democrats and Republicans do such a poor job representing the American people that voters need more political party choices. And Ailsa, more than 80% said yes to that.
CHANG: Eighty percent? Wow.
MOORE: Yeah (laughter).
CHANG: What might be driving that?
MOORE: I mean, I talked to Professor Cathy Cohen about this. She’s the founder and director of the GenForward Survey. And she argues that, you know, political dissatisfaction that young people are feeling is directly tied to their deeply rooted economic concerns.
CATHY COHEN: There is a real sense that these individuals and these parts of the administration are not delivering. Young people are feeling like the state or the government is not, in fact, providing the opportunities that they’re seeking.
MOORE: And the poll finds that nearly 9 in 10 young people are concerned about the price of food and the cost of health care in this country. Plus, I mean, about a third think they’re going to be worse off financially than their parents. So right now, I mean, quite a grim outlook.
CHANG: Yeah. How do these economic concerns fit into their views of other big institutions, you think?
MOORE: Yeah, I mean, that gets at Cohen’s main takeaway from this poll. You know, when asked about factors needed to make democracy work well in the U.S., housing and affordability of food were the top choices after the need for free and fair elections. And to Cohen, you know, that shows that young people believe that their economic struggles are really intertwined with their feelings about democracy.
COHEN: These young people are saying that without the ability to have full lives, they can’t be full citizens. And they’re rejecting this idea that we should separate discussions of democracy from discussions of affordability.
MOORE: So Ailsa, essentially, they’re saying if the economy isn’t working well, neither are the political institutions in charge of fixing it.
CHANG: OK. Well, Elena, you have pored over all of this data. What do you think is the big takeaway here?
MOORE: Well, I think a lot of young people just, you know, feel unseen. And there are examples, that said, when young people are taken seriously, they can, you know, prove decisive in elections. I mean, look at Democrats’ win in the New York mayoral race. Zohran Mamdani centered his campaign on affordability. Or, you know, even Trump’s bid in 2024. A lot of young people supported him because of his focus, at least at the time, on inflation. But as this poll shows, those concerns are still very much out there.
CHANG: Indeed. That is NPR’s Elena Moore. Thank you so much, Elena.
MOORE: Thanks.
