North Carolina crashed the swing state party in 2024, especially after Vice President Kamala Harris replaced President Joe Biden atop the Democratic presidential ticket.
All along, political observers had expected six states to decide whether or not former President Donald Trump would return to the White House: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia.
But North Carolina was the state Trump won by the smallest margin in 2020, and as this year’s presidential contest has entered its final stretch, both parties are pouring resources, time and energy into the Tarheel State. Polls show a close race in North Carolina.
To get a sense of where things stand away from the campaign rallies themselves, an NPR team took on the hardship assignment of a trip to the state fair. Amid the midway rides and fried food stands, we learned three key things about the race in North Carolina.
1. Election ads — and Mark Robinson — loom large
The most remarkable thing about our time in North Carolina was how inundated we were by the election. Every commercial break on just about every TV channel is filled, start to finish, with campaign ads. The same goes for the radio, and the pre-roll ads popping up on YouTube and social media feeds.
The election wormed its way into the fairgrounds, too: vendors were selling airbrushed t-shirts featuring Trump’s defiant post-assassination attempt fist pump, with the caption “You Missed!” A beef jerky stand converted its tip jar into a straw poll, with one cup featuring an image of Harris and the other of Trump. (Trump had a decisive $12-to-$0 lead in this unscientific poll.)
“I get to the point where I’m ready for the election to be over,” Deja Boston told us, as she, her husband Rahmode, and their six-month-old-daughter Kynslei stopped near the North Carolina Democratic Party’s booth. She sees “too many” ads — “a thousand.” The Bostons tick off the incoming political content: text messages… television… radio…
What, if anything, has cut through all that noise? The Bostons both instantly respond: Mark Robinson.
The state’s Republican lieutenant governor, who’s running for governor, is playing a starring role in many of the ads blanketing North Carolina. Not necessarily his own campaign’s ads, but rather, Democratic attack ads trying to link Republicans up and down the ballot to Robinson’s controversial statements and policy stances, especially his strict opposition to abortion rights.
The Trump campaign and other Republicans have distanced themselves from Robinson, especially in the wake of a CNN report Robinson denies that ties him to racist and offensive comments made on a pornographic website. But he still has his supporters.
“He’s very vocal, he’s very opinionated,” said Faye New. “But they have taken some of the things he said out of context. They don’t tell you the whole paragraph. They just see one line and say, ‘Oh, that sounds nasty, let’s put it in there.’”
2. Everyone is anxious
Faye New is an unabashed Republican hardliner. We approach her because of her outfit: a bright pink WOMEN FOR ROBINSON cap, and a t-shirt that reads, “I’m voting for the convicted felon.” (A New York jury found Trump guilty of falsifying business records in a criminal case earlier this year. He’s facing felony charges in three additional cases, as well.)
She’s quick with an answer on everything, except … the outcome of what’s shaping up to be an incredibly tight race in North Carolina. Both the Trump and Harris campaigns have spent millions of dollars in the state, and have returned week after week for campaign events. Polls show a near-deadlocked race in a state that hasn’t voted Democrat on the presidential level since 2008. “It’s tighter than I like it,” New concedes. “But you never know ‘til it’s all said and done.”
Later on, we come across Debbie and Lew Love, who are wearing homemade hats supporting Harris: they feature a blue comma, as in the punctuation, and a red cursive LA. They voted earlier that day, and likely don’t share many opinions with New, except that same anxiety about the result. “My gut starts churning at 2 a.m., and I can’t get it off my mind,” Debbie Love said. “I just pray about it.”
Lew Love takes a more optimistic view: “If [Democrats] can carry North Carolina, we’ll be in good shape.”
That’s true. The state’s 16 electoral votes will likely play a key role in either Harris or Trump’s path to 270, and the White House.
3. The 2024 election is about … many things
The political importance of North Carolina is clear. What’s less clear is what the 2024 presidential race is primarily about. We asked every voter we came across what, to them, the stakes and story of the election were, and got a wide range of answers.
Like many Democrats, Debbie Lew said it came down to reproductive rights and the ongoing fallout in state legislatures across the country from the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2022 decision overturning Roe V. Wade.
“Don’t make me start crying over the abortion thing. It tears my heart out of my chest,” Lew said. “Because if a 12-year-old, 13-year-old, 16-year-old — if they’re impregnated,” she said, trailing off. “I need to have the right to decide.”
The North Carolina legislature passed a 12-week abortion ban in the wake of the Dobbs decision. It’s a major theme of Democratic campaign ads, and Harris is campaigning on signing a federal law restoring protections previously granted by Roe V. Wade.
Many Republicans see the race differently — even Dr. Bill Pincus, who was manning North Carolina Right To Life’s booth at the fair. Pincus spoke passionately about how he believes life begins at conception, and that to him, opposing abortion rights is about protecting life. But when we asked him what the election was about, he said the economy. “I think the real thing is everybody’s hurting, because prices have gone up so much,” he said.
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Inflation has leveled out over the past year, but the topic remains raw, and politically potent, for conservatives. Derek Nipper, who was working the state Republican Party’s booth, said for him, the election is about “my wallet. I remember when Trump was in office, I was able to put up not a lot, but maybe $200 a paycheck.” Now, he said, “I’m struggling to make it to payday with money in my pocket.”
There’s one more factor: one that Harris is not campaigning on directly, but that’s nevertheless top of mind to many voters. “To be honest with you,” said Deja Boston, “it’s just historical for me as a Black woman.”
Transcript:
SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
And I’m Scott Detrow in the Ferris wheel at the North Carolina State Fair in Raleigh. And the Ferris wheel looms over this fair kind of the same way that the presidential election looms over North Carolina. Millions and millions of dollars are being spent to woo voters here. It’s one of a handful of swing states that could decide who the next president is going to be. And with just a few weeks to go, the polls in this state are dead even.
(SOUNDBITE OF SLIDE WHISTLE)
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #1: Anybody else want to play over here, huh? Want to play?
DETROW: Amid familiar state fair staples, like carnival games and bacon-covered fried treats, there are also plenty of signs of this tight, intense election. Among the airbrushed T-shirt offerings, that famous picture of former President Donald Trump pumping his fist in the air after the summer’s assassination attempt, with the caption, you missed. A beef jerky stand makes its tip jar a straw poll – two cups, one with a picture of Vice President Kamala Harris, the other of Trump. Trump has $12 in it, and Harris zero.
North Carolina hasn’t broken Democrat for President since 2008, but Trump’s win here in 2020 was by less than a point. In the center of the state fair’s Expo Hall, the election becomes a bit more front and center. It’s a political alley of sorts with booths manned by both state parties, among other groups. Fairgoers Rahmad (ph) and Deja Boston (ph) stop at the Democratic booth along with their 6-month-old daughter Kinsley (ph). They’re voting for Harris and other Democrats. Still, they’re pretty exhausted by the race at this point.
How many ads do you come across on a daily basis?
DEJA BOSTON: Too many – a thousand.
RAHMAD BOSTON: Yeah.
D BOSTON: Yeah.
R BOSTON: I get to the point where I say, I’m…
D BOSTON: Text messages.
R BOSTON: …Ready for the elections to be over (laughter).
DETROW: I’m just curious, like, what sticks in your head?
D BOSTON: Mark Robinson – it’s not your body anymore.
DETROW: The Republican gubernatorial candidate is a constant presence in North Carolina ads, less from his campaign and more so from just about every ad attacking other GOP candidates.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #2: Who’s worse than Mark Robinson? His choice for lieutenant governor, Hal Weatherman.
DETROW: Many Republicans have distanced themselves from Robinson, especially in the weeks since CNN published reports that tie him to controversial comments on a pornography website, which the Robinson campaign denies he made. At the State Fair, voter Faye Nu (ph) is sticking with him.
FAYE NU: He’s very vocal. He’s very opinionated, but they have taken some of the things that he’s said out of context. They just see one line and say, oh, that sounds nasty. Let’s put it in there.
DETROW: Nu’s husband is in the North Carolina chapter of the Sons of Confederate Veterans, and she’s sitting in a high-top chair in front of the group’s booth. She’s wearing a pink Women for Robinson cap, and…
…Can you describe your shirt for radio people who can’t see it?
NU: Oh, it says, I’m voting for the convicted felon.
DETROW: Nu says, for her, like for many Republicans, this race is all about the economy. She says it was just better when Trump was in office.
NU: At the time, I was a small business owner, and it was the first time that my taxes were reasonable. It was wonderful.
DETROW: Nu exudes confidence when you talk to her. But this presidential race in North Carolina has her a little worried.
NU: Well, it’s tighter than I’d like it, but you never know till it’s all said and done.
DETROW: Like in many other states, abortion rights are top of mind in North Carolina. A 12-week abortion ban went into effect here last year. Ads about it are everywhere.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #3: As women, we should be in charge of our own reproductive healthcare, but our rights are at risk.
DETROW: At the State Fair, there’s also a strong appeal from anti-abortion rights advocates, like Dr. Bill Pincus, who’s manning the North Carolina Right to Life booth.
BILL PINCUS: That’s a new human being. It’s not the mother. It’s not the father. It’s a human life.
DETROW: He’s been president of the group for about five years.
What do you make of the way that former President Trump has been campaigning on the abortion issue this election?
PINCUS: So I think he disappointed a lot of pro-lifers, but if you look at what he did and not what he says, he appointed constitutionalist judges that then said, look, Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, and it should be a states issue. Now, our goal is to make abortion unthinkable even if it’s legal, and that’s through education.
DETROW: Around the corner, in another aisle of the Expo Hall, we encounter another point of view, Harris supporters Debbie (ph) and Lou Love (ph), who say they’re voting on policy and personality.
LOU LOVE: Character, integrity, not lying.
DEBBIE LOVE: Decency.
L LOVE: Not cheating.
D LOVE: Respect – I mean, what would Jesus be saying if he was up there? Don’t make me start crying. But the abortion thing – it tears my heart out of my chest because if a 12-year-old, 13-year-old, 16-year-olds – if they’re impregnated, even if somebody’s 20, 30, 40 – I need to have the right to decide.
DETROW: The Loves are both wearing homemade Harris hats, a blue comma – as in punctuation – and a red cursive la. Debbie Love wavers between hopeful and anxious.
D LOVE: My guts are churning sometimes at 2:00 a.m., and I can’t get off my mind. And I just – I pray about it. Yeah.
L LOVE: If we can carry North Carolina, we’ll be good shape.
DETROW: There are voters like the Loves all-in on Harris. There are also many voters like the Bostons – people who have specific views about the race that are also a little jaded by it all. I asked Deja Boston the same question I asked Faye Nu – what, to her, is this election all about?
D BOSTON: Fairness – you know, fairness, to me. You know, I was hearing about that Trump is going to give police full immunity.
R BOSTON: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
D BOSTON: Why would they need full immunity? I mean, honestly, to be honest with you, it’s just historical for me as a Black woman. It’s very historical.
DETROW: The North Carolina State Fair runs through Sunday. North Carolina early voting runs into the weekend after that. So far, more than 1.7 million North Carolina voters have cast ballots. And we will have more reporting from this key swing state later this week as our series, We, The Voters, continues.
