Three major reports out this month say President Trump has done serious damage to American democracy at remarkable speed since his return to the White House.
An annual report from V-Dem, an institute at Sweden’s University of Gothenburg, concluded democracy had deteriorated so much in the U.S. that it lowered the country’s democracy ranking from 20th to 51st out of 179 countries.
The U.S. landed between Slovakia and Greece.
Meanwhile, Bright Line Watch, which surveys more than 500 U.S. scholars, concluded that the U.S. system now falls nearly midway between liberal democracy and dictatorship. The newest survey comes out next week. Bright Line Watch’s co-directors spoke to NPR exclusively ahead of publication.
Yet another report out Thursday from Freedom House, a Washington, D.C.-based democracy think-tank, said that among free countries, the U.S. joined Bulgaria and Italy in registering the largest declines in political rights and civil liberties last year.
“The developments in the United States are moving towards dictatorship, what the founders wanted to avoid,” said Staffan Lindberg, the V-Dem Institute’s founding director, who spent seven years in the U.S. “It’s the most rapid decline ever in the history of the United States and one of the most rapid in the world.”
V-Dem stands for Varieties of Democracy. More than 4,000 scholars contributed data to the report, which is the largest of its kind.
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales dismissed V-Dem’s analysis as “a ridiculous claim made by an irrelevant, blatantly biased organization.”
She called Trump a champion for freedom and democracy and the most transparent and accessible president ever.
“His return to the White House saved the legacy media from going out of business,” Wales said.
Trump has rejected criticism that he tries to rule as an autocrat.
“A lot of people are saying maybe we like a dictator,” Trump said to reporters in the Oval Office last August. “I don’t like a dictator. I’m not a dictator.”
Lindberg said V-Dem downgraded America’s rating based on the Trump administration concentrating executive power, overstepping laws, circumventing the Republican-led Congress as well as attacks on the news media and freedom of speech. Lindberg, a political scientist, is struck by the speed with which Trump has acted.
“Under the Trump administration, democracy has been rolled back as much during just one year as it took Modi in India and Erdogan in Turkey 10 years to accomplish, and Orban in Hungary four years,” said Lindberg, referring to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
All three of those leaders came to power through democratic elections, but scholars say they have since undermined checks and balances on executive power to try to ensure they remain in office.
Trump is a big fan of Orbán’s and has praised him as a “strongman” and a “tough person.” Orbán faces election next month — the first real challenge to his rule in a decade and a half.
Scholars are alarmed by Trump’s blitz on the U.S. system of governance, but John Carey, a co-director of Bright Line Watch, says the United States’ democracy rating might have slid even further in recent months if not for the courts pushing back.
Carey says autocrats try to co-opt or pressure government institutions that serve as referees but notes that didn’t work last month as the Supreme Court ruled against the president on tariffs.
“One of the things that the tariff decision suggested [is] he has not fully captured that set of referees,” said Carey, a professor of political science at Dartmouth, “and that’s the most important set.”
Brendan Nyhan, a fellow Dartmouth professor and Bright Line co-director, adds that just because Trump has undermined democracy, doesn’t mean the effects are permanent.
“There’s just no question that what we’re seeing is the authoritarian playbook,” said Nyhan, “but there’s no guarantee that Trump will be able to operate this way after the midterms, let alone a successor after 2028.”
Yana Gorokhovskaia, director for strategy and design for Freedom House, says some of Trump’s policies abroad also are undermining the country’s democratic standing overseas.
For instance, the State Department often used to call out election fraud in other countries, but under Trump, it has said it will only comment on foreign elections when the U.S. has a clear and compelling interest.
“What we’re losing is democratic solidarity globally,” Gorokhovskaia said. “We’re no longer emphasizing … a distinction between democracies and autocracies in the world.”
That doesn’t mean the U.S. doesn’t take sides in foreign elections. Just last month, Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly endorsed Orbán, Hungary’s autocratic leader, for a fifth term.
Transcript:
AILSA CHANG, HOST:
With the midterms less than seven months away, what is the state of American democracy? Well, major reports out this month say that President Trump has done serious damage at remarkable speed since his return to the White House. But as NPR’s Frank Langfitt reports, scholars say that Trump has yet to permanently change how America is governed.
FRANK LANGFITT, BYLINE: Every year, V-Dem, an institute at Sweden’s University of Gothenburg, measures democracy in countries around the globe. Its new report says American democracy is being dismantled at unprecedented speed. Staffan Lindberg is the institute’s founding director.
STAFFAN LINDBERG: It’s a very rapid and aggressive concentration on power in the presidency, encroaching and taking powers from the legislature, along with attacks on media freedom and freedom of speech.
LANGFITT: More than 4,000 scholars contributed data to the report, the largest of its kind in the world. The report found that America’s democracy ranking plunged last year, tumbling from 20th to 51st out of 179 countries. The United States landed between Slovakia and Greece. Lindberg says Trump is eroding democracy quickly.
LINDBERG: Under the Trump administration, democracy has been rolled back as much during just one year as it took Modi in India and Erdogan in Turkey 10 years to accomplish, and Orban in Hungary four years.
LANGFITT: Lindberg’s referring to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. All three leaders came to power through democratic elections. But scholars say they have since undermined checks and balances to try to ensure they remain in office. Lindberg says the U.S. is on a similar path.
LINDBERG: Developments in the United States are moving towards dictatorship – what the founders wanted to avoid. And it’s going very fast. And if one wants to avoid that, pro-democratic action is needed urgently.
LANGFITT: White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales dismissed V-Dem’s analysis as, quote, “a ridiculous claim made by an irrelevant, blatantly biased organization.” President Trump has heard these claims before and rejected them, as he did speaking with reporters last August.
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: He’s a dictator. He’s a dictator. A lot of people are saying maybe we like a dictator. I don’t like a dictator. I’m not a dictator.
LANGFITT: But another report surveying more than 500 U.S. scholars finds that the U.S. now falls nearly midway between liberal democracy and dictatorship. The survey is called Bright Line Watch. Dartmouth’s John Carey is one of its codirectors. He says the U.S.’s rating might have slid even further towards dictatorship in recent months if not for the courts pushing back. Carey says autocrats try to co-op or pressure government institutions that serve as referees, but that strategy doesn’t always work. Carey cites last month’s Supreme Court ruling against the president on tariffs.
JOHN CAREY: One of the things that the tariff decision suggested anyway is that he has not fully captured that set of referees, and that’s the most important set.
LANGFITT: Brendan Nyhan is a fellow Dartmouth professor and a Bright Line codirector. He says just because Trump has undermined democracy does not mean the effects are permanent.
BRENDAN NYHAN: There’s just no question that what we’re seeing is the authoritarian playbook. But there’s no guarantee that Trump will be able to operate this way after the midterms, let alone a successor after 2028.
LANGFITT: Trump has already claimed without evidence that Democrats will cheat in the midterms. The State Department often used to call out election fraud overseas. But under Trump, it told NPR that it will only comment on foreign elections when the U.S. has a clear and compelling interest.
YANA GOROKHOVSKAIA: Not commenting on foreign elections is a major departure from U.S. foreign policy and marks just a big change in our approach to the world.
LANGFITT: Yana Gorokhovskaia is director for strategy and design for Freedom House. It’s a D.C.-based think tank that focuses on freedom around the world. Freedom House put out its annual report today. It also downgraded its rating of the United States. Gorokhovskaia cited increased use of executive power and the administration taking gifts from foreign governments, such as a 747 from Qatar. She also said the U.S. shift away from calling out election fraud overseas hurts America’s international relationships.
GOROKHOVSKAIA: What we’re losing is democratic solidarity globally, where we’re no longer emphasizing, as the United States, a distinction between democracies and autocracies in the world.
LANGFITT: That doesn’t mean the U.S. doesn’t take sides in foreign elections. Just last month, Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly endorsed Hungary’s autocratic leader Viktor Orban for a fifth term. Frank Langfitt, NPR News, Washington.
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