SEOUL — South Korea’s president vowed on Thursday to respond to North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia, including by potentially supplying offensive weapons to Ukraine.
Seoul will not “sit idle” in the face of a North Korean “provocation that threatens global security beyond the Korean Peninsula and Europe,” South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol told reporters in Seoul, after a summit meeting with visiting Polish President Andrzej Duda.
Yoon’s remarks follow Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s assertion Wednesday that the United States has evidence of North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia.
Austin did not specify what the evidence was, but said if North Korean troops were to fight for Russia, it would be a “very, very serious issue.”
South Korea’s intelligence chief told lawmakers Wednesday that North Korea has sent 3,000 troops, including special forces, to Russia for training, and that the North plans to increase that number to 10,000 by December.
The deployment of North Korean troops could add to concerns that the war risks spilling over and affecting tensions in Asia, from the Korean Peninsula to the Taiwan Strait.
South Korea’s intelligence agency said last week that North Korea had sent more than 13,000 containers of artillery, missiles and other conventional weapons to Russia since August 2023. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned earlier this month that North Korea is “no longer just about transferring weapons” but personnel too to help Russian forces.
President Yoon pledged support for additional South Korean weapons sales to Poland, including the sale of $7 billion worth of K2 tanks. So far, South Korea has helped Ukraine by providing arms to the United States and Ukraine’s neighbors, but he said that could change.
“We have had a principle of not directly supplying lethal weapons” to combatants, he told reporters, “but we can be more flexible and review the policy depending on North Korea’s military activities.”
Even if they do fight on the front lines, analysts believe North Korean troops will be relegated to a supporting role in the war.
Lee Ho-ryung, a researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, a government think tank in Seoul, says North Korean troops could be sent to wear down Ukraine’s offensive into Russia’s Kursk region.
The North Koreans will likely be put “in charge of security and such at first. But as time goes by, and with training, they may be able to support Russian operations,” Lee says. “Then, it is expected that there will be many casualties during that process.”
South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun told lawmakers Thursday that North Korean troops “are assessed to be mere cannon fodder mercenaries.” North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, he added, “has sold his people’s army for an illegal war of aggression.”
North Korean state media have made no mention of deploying troops to Russia, and the South’s intelligence agency says North Korea may be sequestering family members of troops sent to Russia, possibly to quell domestic discontent at the deployment.
Even if the North Korean deployment has limited military value, analysts say it sends important messages to major powers.
North Korea has named Russia as its top foreign policy priority, and in June, signed a treaty, ratified by Russia’s parliament on Thursday, which allows for mutual assistance if either country comes under attack. Deploying troops could be seen as cementing that deal.
For Ukraine, pointing to North Korean intervention strengthens the Ukrainian government’s appeals for Western military aid. South Korea’s suggestion that it could arm Ukraine is music to Kyiv’s ears, argues Yoon Sukjoon, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for Maritime Strategy, and a retired South Korean navy captain.
“South Korea saying: ‘We will now stand on the U.S. side and sell offensive weapons to Ukraine’ helps Ukraine,” he says, “and I think that’s ultimately what Ukraine wanted to get from President Zelenskyy’s disclosure” of the North Korean deployment.
That said, Yoon and other analysts believe South Korea will respond cautiously to any North Korean troop deployment, to keep Russia from giving North Korea the military assistance that it seeks as a reward for sending troops.
Moscow has warned Seoul not to get involved in Ukraine. “It is necessary to think about the consequences for the security of South Korea” if it entered the conflict in Ukraine, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said Wednesday. “The Russian Federation will react harshly to any steps that may pose a threat to the security of the country and its citizens.”
Se Eun Gong contributed to this report from Seoul.
Transcript:
MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
The U.S. says it has evidence that North Korea has sent troops to Russia possibly to fight with them against Ukraine.
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Ukraine and South Korea also say this. Russia and North Korea are denying this news, which, if true, would suggest an expansion of the war.
MARTIN: With me now is NPR’s international correspondent, Anthony Kuhn, in Seoul, South Korea. Anthony, good morning.
ANTHONY KUHN, BYLINE: Hey, Michel.
MARTIN: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin says the U.S. has evidence of North Korean troops in Russia. What evidence does it have?
KUHN: He didn’t say exactly what they’ve got. There’s been all sorts of stuff in the media, from purported satellite pictures of Russian troop transports to videos of North Korean troops receiving Russian uniforms, but none of this has been confirmed. Now, South Korea’s spy chief has said that about 3,000 North Korean troops are already being trained in Russia, with plans to increase to about 10,000 by December. Austin says that the U.S. is not certain that these North Korean troops are necessarily going to fight in Ukraine, but if they did, it would be a very serious matter. And if you think about it, Asian troops have just not been involved in a European conflict since World War I.
MARTIN: What is North Korea hoping to get in exchange for this deployment if that is in fact what’s happening?
KUHN: Well, North Korea would like to certainly generate revenue and make friends through its weapons exports. The U.S. and South Korea believe North Korea has shipped a lot of artillery shells and short-range missiles to Russia, possibly with engineers to help the Russians use them. Consider that North Korean troops have had no significant combat experience since the end of the Korean War in 1953, and they’d like them to get some. And if North Koreans are going to fight and die in Ukraine, I think North Korea would like Russia to repay their sacrifice with some military aid. North Korea has gotten help from Russia with military satellites. It’s unclear if they’re willing to give any more.
MARTIN: Now, you know, you might argue that 10,000 North Korean troops is actually not very many when compared to the hundreds of thousands Russia has in Ukraine. So is it reasonable to say that this might be a political statement?
KUHN: I think so. Analysts tell me that North Korea wants to show Russia that it’s a loyal ally. North Korea wants to show the U.S. that it needs to keep North Korea on its agenda despite elections in the Middle East. Also, Ukraine has a message to send, which is that it needs aid. I spoke to retired South Korean Navy Captain Yoon Sukjoon, and he pointed out that South Korea has said it might respond by sending weapons to Ukraine, which is what Kyiv wanted to hear. Here’s what he said.
YOON SUKJOON: (Non-English language spoken).
KUHN: “South Korea is saying we will now stand on the U.S. side and sell offensive weapons to Ukraine, and that helps Ukraine,” he said, “and I think that’s ultimately what Ukraine wanted to get from President Zelenskyy’s disclosure that North Korea is sending troops.” So he’s saying it’s in Kyiv’s interest to play up military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow.
MARTIN: Now, Russia has warned South Korea not to get involved in the conflict. How might they respond to that?
KUHN: Well, South Korea says it will not sit idly by while North Korea sends troops, but they haven’t said exactly what they’ll do. And frankly, they’re in a tough spot. President Yoon Suk Yeol has taken a hard line on North Korea. And while he could send troops or weapons, they don’t want Russia to give North Korea more substantial help, so they are likely to proceed very cautiously in reacting.
MARTIN: That is NPR’s international correspondent, Anthony Kuhn, in Seoul, South Korea. Anthony, thank you.
KUHN: Thanks, Michel.
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