Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has argued for decades that Iran was on the verge of producing a nuclear weapon. And he ordered the attack on Iran because he believed Tehran was “marching very quickly” toward a bomb.
“The intel we got and we shared with the United States was absolutely clear, was absolutely clear that they [the Iranians] were working, in a secret plan, to weaponize the uranium,” Netanyahu said in an interview with Fox News.
However, the U.S. intelligence community has long had a somewhat different interpretation. The Americans say Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003, shortly after the U.S. invaded Iraq. While Iraq did not have the weapons of mass destruction the U.S. claimed, the invasion of a neighboring country appeared to rattle Iran, believing it too could face a U.S. incursion.
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard reiterated the U.S. position in testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee on March 25.
“The [intelligence community] continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003,” Gabbard said.
However, President Trump has now contradicted Gabbard.
“I don’t care what she said. I think they [the Iranians] were very close to having it,” the president told reporters as he flew back to Washington from the G7 summit in Canada.
So what to make of these competing claims?
Israeli officials, and Netanyahu in particular, have always tended to see new developments in Iran’s nuclear program as movement toward a bomb that would directly threaten Israel.
U.S. national security officials have acknowledged over the years that Iran continues to work on many aspects of its nuclear program, but say Khamenei has always stopped short of authorizing the building of a nuclear weapon.
U.N. agency says uranium enrichment has increased
The U.N.’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, says Iran has now accumulated a little over 400 kilograms (about 900 pounds) of Uranium-235 enriched to 60% purity.
For comparison, uranium enriched to 5% can be used to run a civilian nuclear power plant, and 90% enrichment is considered weapons grade.
To go from 60% to 90% enrichment can be done quickly, according to nuclear experts.
If Iran did that, it would have enough material for about 10 nuclear weapons, according to U.S. and Israeli officials.
The Iranians would still need to take several additional steps such as turning the uranium in gas form to metal, and then fashioning it into a bomb design.
Prior to this attack, if Iran headed down this path, it could likely produce a rudimentary bomb in around six months, according to David Albright, the president of the Institute for Science and International Security, which closely monitors Iran’s nuclear program.
The chaos of the current conflict has scrambled many previous calculations. But experts say Israel has set back Iran’s program with attacks on multiple nuclear sites, including airstrikes that have killed at least nine Iranian nuclear scientists, according to the Israeli military.
“I think Israel is lengthening the time Iran would need to make nuclear weapons, probably significantly,” Albright said.
Trump changes his tone
When Israel launched its airstrikes last Friday, the Trump administration was supportive of Israel, and the U.S. military has assisted with air defense systems to protect against Iranian missile strikes. But for the first few days, Trump and his team kept stressing that the U.S. was not involved in attacks against Iran.
Based on these public statements, it appeared that Trump initially gave Israel a “yellow light” to conduct the operation, agreeing to help Israel play defense, but not offense.
Now, with Israel inflicting heavy damage on Iran, Trump seems open to the possibility of direct U.S. military involvement.
Israel wants the U.S. to do something it can’t: unleash a huge, bunker-busting bomb to hit the most important Iranian nuclear facility, Fordow, which is built into the side of a mountain a little over 100 miles south of Tehran.
The U.S. bomb, known as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, or the GBU-57, weighs 30,000 pounds and is so heavy that only one U.S. warplane is configured to carry it, the B-2 stealth bomber.
The U.S. provides Israel with a wide range of U.S. planes and U.S. bombs, which Israel is currently employing. But Israel doesn’t have this plane or this bomb. Israel has repeatedly made this request to the U.S., but it has always declined.
The Iranians chose the Fordow site with the knowledge that the U.S. or Israel might someday try to bomb it, as Israel has done with above-ground nuclear facilities in Iraq in 1981 and in Syria in 2007.
Fordow has “a considerable amount of 60% enriched uranium and a considerable number of gas centrifuges,” said Albright.
If the U.S. attacks, it’s not clear how much damage it could inflict on the Fordow site, which is believed to be close to 300 feet under the mountain.
“One [bomb] is not going to do it,” Albright said. “I think it’ll be a challenge with a couple. You try to hit the same spot more than once and the shockwave, you hope, will collapse the ceiling.”
Transcript:
A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu says he ordered the attack on Iran because he believed it was, quote, “marching very quickly” toward a nuclear weapon, but the U.S. intelligence community believes Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program more than two decades ago and has never reversed that decision. So who’s right? We’ve called on two NPR reporters, science correspondent Geoff Brumfiel and national security correspondent Greg Myre.
Greg, so let’s start with you. Briefly lay out the arguments Israel and the U.S. are making about Iran’s nuclear program.
GREG MYRE, BYLINE: So Israel’s Netanyahu has argued literally for decades that Iran was on the verge of acquiring a nuclear bomb. And he says Israel attacked now because Iran was making a big new push to get there rapidly. Now, he hasn’t provided specifics, but he claimed the intelligence was clear and that he shared it with the U.S. Now, the U.S. intelligence community has taken a different position for a long time. It says Iran suspended the weapons program in 2003. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard stated this in congressional testimony on March 25. She said Iran continued to enrich uranium, but it hadn’t decided to make a bomb. She expressed very familiar information. However, Trump has now contradicted Gabbard. He said, quote, “I don’t care what she said. I think they,” meaning the Iranians, “were very close to having it.”
MARTÍNEZ: All right. So, Geoff, can you cut through these conflicting accounts and tell us how close Iran actually is to a nuclear weapon?
GEOFF BRUMFIEL, BYLINE: Well, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has accumulated a little over 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium 235. Now, to put them in perspective, a reactor – a typical research reactor – well, a typical civilian reactor requires about 5%. Ninety percent is bomb grade, but getting from 60 to 90 is actually a pretty quick job. Most of the work is done at 60%. Experts say that’s round enough for 10 nuclear weapons, but there’s no public information to indicate Iran’s taking that step to weaponize its uranium.
MARTÍNEZ: OK. So they have this uranium. So what else would they need to do to actually make the weapon?
BRUMFIEL: You know, the most important thing they need to do is actually take the decision. We know they had a pretty advanced nuclear weapons program in the early 2000s. They do have the expertise. So that’s, I think, part of the reason there’s so much uncertainty – because, you know, knowing what’s in the head of the Iranians is tough. But beyond that, this uranium is currently in gas form. They’d have to turn it into a metal, fashion it into a bomb design. Netanyahu himself says that could take months or a year. Again, though, you know, at the moment, we don’t know if they’ve taken any of those steps.
MARTÍNEZ: All right. Now, Greg, President Trump has been very clear in the past that he doesn’t want to get involved in another Middle East war, and he was negotiating with Iran. So what has changed his mind, apparently?
MYRE: Yeah, A, it’s not clear. But his tone and language has shifted very clearly over the past several days. This doesn’t seem to have come about from anything he’s necessarily hearing from top U.S. advisers or the intelligence community or the military. Now, Trump and Netanyahu did speak last week, four days before Israel launched the attack. Netanyahu says Israel has been keeping the U.S. informed, though we don’t know the level of detail. And there’s no real indication that Trump tried to stop Israel from launching the attack. And since then, he was – initially, at least – supportive in general but stressing the U.S. was not involved.
So the picture that emerges seems to be Trump initially giving Israel a yellow light. You can do this, but it’s your war. The U.S. will help play – Israel play defense but not offense. But now, with the Israeli operation going well, so far, from Israel’s perspective, Trump seems open to the possibility of direct U.S. military involvement.
MARTÍNEZ: OK, Greg. Then if that’s what happens, if there’s going to be direct U.S. military involvement, what would the U.S.’ role be? What would they do?
MYRE: Yeah. Israel wants the U.S. to do one big thing – use its massive bunker-busting bomb to hit the Fordo nuclear facility, which has this highly enriched uranium Geoff was mentioning. Now, this is a major challenge because Fordo was built into the side of a mountain. It’s a little over 100 miles south of Tehran. The U.S. bomb, known as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, is so big that only one U.S. plane can carry it, the B-2 bomber. Israel relies almost entirely on U.S. planes and U.S. bombs, but it doesn’t have this bomb or this plane. Israel has repeatedly requested this bomb from the U.S., but the U.S. has always declined.
MARTÍNEZ: Geoff, do we know if this bomb would, in fact, destroy a nuclear facility protected by a mountain?
BRUMFIEL: I’m not sure it’s clear that we do, actually. So, you know, this bomb is 30,000 pounds. It’s definitely one of the biggest bombs in the U.S. arsenal. But this facility, Fordo, is more than 200 feet under hard mountain rock, and it is very difficult to penetrate that kind of rock, even with a bomb this big. So I think the strategy may involve trying to use multiple weapons to penetrate the rock and get down there. But then you’re talking about multiple flights of this bomber, multiple drops. They all have to hit the same location. It’s starting to look like, logistically, it’s a much more difficult mission. So I think there’s a lot of open questions as to whether this is going to be the solution the Israelis hope it is.
MARTÍNEZ: All right. That’s NPR’s Geoff Brumfiel and Greg Myre. Thanks, you two.
BRUMFIEL: Thank you.
MYRE: Sure thing, A.
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