New Hampshire’s primary has long been pivotal because it’s first. It’s where voters in a real campaign hand the nation the opening verdict on which candidates should carry their parties banners to the summer nominating conventions and on to the fall election.
Voters in this flinty Yankee bastion have taken this responsibility seriously since early in the 20th Century.
White House hopefuls are vetted for months at house parties and town meetings in school gyms and community centers.
Candidates take rounds of questions from the school crossing guard, the snowplow driver, the town crank. It’s not an insider caucus like Iowa that draws the few, but a traditional election that’s a magnet for the many.
The state, not the parties, run things. Turnouts are high. There are absentee ballots, same-day voter registration and convenient poll locations. Results are tabulated quickly and accurately.
Tomorrow’s election is not likely to be different, barring some unforeseen disaster.
What’s changed is a larger element: How much will New Hampshire mean in this unsettled year of impeachment, twitter insult and Iowa incoherence?
The stakes are huge for all the Democrats who want their address to be 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Media polling has narrowed the likely choices to Vermont’s Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren of Massahusetts, Pete Buttigieg of Indiana and Joe Biden, the former vice president.
Sanders and Warren are vying for liberal voters and regional love. New Hampshire usually favors New England candidates. But when there are two competitors from the region, the loser goes home. Think 2004 when Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and Massachusetts Sen.John Kerry were the New Englanders.Kerry defeated Dean and the Vermonter quickly dropped out.
A Sanders loss would seriously wound, but not kill, his effort. With his more than a million loyal small donors, his money reservoir won’t dry up. Running for office and bashing the one-percenters is what Bernie does.This is Sanders 23rd campaign since 1971. (He’s run three campaigns for governor; five for U.S. Senator; nine for U.S. House; four for Burlington mayor and two for president.)
Sanders comes out of the Iowa fiasco in fine shape, probably finishing either first or a close second to Buttigieg, depending on the final tally –if ever there is one. Warren’s candidacy is on the line in New Hampshire, particularly after her lackluster third in Iowa.
But it’s Biden who has the most to lose. Landing fourth in Iowa was awful, particularly for a politician widely admired among both establishment figures and everyday Democrats. He’s seen as a man of great empathy and decency, someone who can speak honestly about personal loss and pain. He has endorsements and experience. What he doesn’t have is the small-donor money spigot developed by his opponents.
Biden draws polite and civil crowds heavily salted with moderate voters near the end of the actuarial table. But he doesn’t resonate with the young. Liberals dominate in Democratic primaries in this chilly state that’s home to few minorities.
Then there is Buttigieg. He’s a factor because of his vault from nowhere to a top finish in Iowa and the strong organization he’s built. Not yet 40 years old, he’s trying to wrest the nomination with a generational pitch, his boyish looks a contrast to the other top three contenders who are all over 70.
New Hampshire historically gave the little known and underfinanced candidate a shot at national momentum. It’s the state that in 1968 gave anti- Vietnam War candidate Gene McCarthy the votes he needed to take his campaign national and force President Lyndon Johnson from office. The same year, New Hampshire resurrected Republican Richard Nixon and he captured the White House.
Democrat George McGovern jumped over front-runner Edmund Muskie in 1972 on the strength of his New Hampshire campaign. Jimmy Carter vaulted from obscure Georgia governor by promising the Watergate-weary that he’d never lie to them. Then in 1980, Carter’s dispatched challenger Ted Kennedy by winning New Hampshire. Republican Ronald Reagan skipped Iowa in 1980, then crushed George H.W. Bush in this primary. Republican John McCain’s 2008 bid was on life support until he won New Hampshire. He went on to the nomination.
But we’re in an age of the norm-shattering Donald Trump presidency and Democratic disarray. So it’s foolish to rely on the old rules.
Waiting for tomorrow’s Democratic winner is billionaire Mike Bloomberg, once New York’s Republican mayor. Bloomberg is ignoring New Hampshire and other early events, relying on his fortune.
Does cash and celebrity overcome meet-and-greet campaigning, earnest position papers and a victory party in a Manchester hotel ballroom? We’ll soon find out. What’s clear in 2020 is that it’s all unclear.
Scott MacKay’s commentary can be heard every Monday morning at 6:45 and 8:45 and at 5:44 in the afternoon.
