Presidential campaigns are usually compared to marathons. That’s not so now; the 2020 campaign will more resemble a sprint.
That’s because the rules have been dramatically altered. The biggest change is the elimination of the superdelegates, the party functionaries and elected officials who lined up behind Hillary Clinton in 2016. There were almost 800 superdelegates in 2016. They’re gone and their influence will be replaced by primary voters and caucus goers.
The other notable element is the shortening of the electoral process. The first event is the traditional Iowa caucus on February 3rd, followed a week later by the kickoff primary in the snows of New Hampshire.
Then on March 3rd, 15 states hold primaries. They include delegate-rich California, the New England states of Massachusetts, Vermont and Maine, and the biggest southern draw, Texas. By the time returns roll in that evening, 40 percent of delegates will be locked in.
This means an early decision on a challenger to President Trump. The Democratic nominee will likely be clear by the middle of March, says Tad Devine, who was a top adviser to Bernie Sanders in 2016 but is not affiliated with any campaign now.
“Getting ahead early is the key to being the nominee,” says Devine. A candidate who is ahead by 250 delegates or so by St. Patrick’s Day is probably unstoppable. The Rhode Island and Connecticut primaries, slated for April 28th, may have scant impact.
The early polling has favored former Vice President Joe Biden, Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who has ridden her I’ve-got-a-plan-for-that charismatic wonkery to break into the top tier.
Polls this far out are notoriously bad predictors, particularly in New Hampshire, where finicky voters are known for making up their minds in the waning days. So far, the White House hopefuls are spending more time and money in Iowa than New Hampshire. The two states are overwhelmingly white and Democrats lean liberal in both. But they are much different events.
The Iowa caucuses are a low-turnout affairs, dominated by liberals and labor union members. New Hampshire is a traditional election, with turnouts higher than 50 percent. Independents can cast ballots. Traditionally, it winnows New England candidates. It’s difficult to see how Vermont’s Sanders and the Bay State’s Warren both survive New Hampshire, unless they land in a virtual tie for first. The expectations for Sanders are high; he defeated Clinton by 22 points there in 2016.
The other big question the early events will answer is the progressive turn among Democrats. There has been much hand-wringing among moderates over some progressive stances that those in the middle fear play into Trump’s hand. These include Medicare-for-All, decriminalizing pot and the borders, aggressive climate change plans and impeachment.
Soon it will be time for voters to decide what the media pundits have been wrestling over. Devine argues that Medicare-for-All can be finessed into a winning message. Drug and insurance companies are unpopular, says Devine, and Trump hasn’t come up with a credible replacement for the Obamacare system Republicans so detest.
Get ready for a short, albeit bumpy, roller-coaster ride. The rhetoric will heat up as Democrats decide who should take on the unpopular Republican president. Before the snow melts in New England, we should have a good idea of who that candidate might be.
Scott MacKay’s commentary can be heard every Monday morning at 6:45 and 8:45 and at 5:44 in the afternoon.
