The top contenders are former White House aide Gabe Amo, Pawtucket state Senator Sandra Cano, Lieutenant Governor Sabina Matos and former state Representative Aaron Regunberg. The victor will square off in November against the winner of the Republican primary. With little public polling,and the vote split among so many candidates, Tuesday’s outcome is impossible to predict. I’m Ian Donnis and this week I’m going in-depth on the race in CD1 with two fellow political reporters. Politics/economics editor for WPRI-TV, Channel 12, Ted Nesi, and Statehouse reporter for The Providence Journal Patrick Anderson.
Ian Donnis: Let’s start with our takeaways from the recent debates. Rival candidates have focused their criticism on Aaron Regunberg, indicating that he’s the perceived front runner heading into the homestretch. Ted, my sense from your debate earlier this week on channel 12, was that there was not really a huge blunder or a huge gain for any of the candidates and that the status quo is essentially prevailing in the race. Would you agree?
Ted Nesi: I think so, Ian. Yeah, I think the candidates certainly the others, the non Aarons seemed happy that Regunberg had a tough moment off the top on the debt limit ceiling where he said, Well, I’d only vote no, as long as didn’t matter. And I’d vote yes. If it was the deciding vote, which I just thought was an interesting moment. But I heard from people after the debate who don’t necessarily like Regunberg, or at least aren’t supporting him who thought, you know, when you are the front runner, which everyone basically agrees at this point, and you are under coordinated assault by seven people on stage. He survived that and was still able to show over the course of the debate: he knows the issues well, whether you agree with him or not. So yeah, I don’t think it was by any means a bad night for Aaron Regunberg. But, you know, it’s so hard with eight people. It’s so hard with eight people right to know how it’s splitting up for everyone. That’s how I feel.
Ian Donnis: Patrick, the debt limit is kind of an arcane issue for a lot of people have Regunberg’s critics been effective in putting that into a narrative against him.
Patrick Anderson: Maybe as effective as they could be. But as you said, this is not a kitchen table issue necessarily. That’s going to get people motivated. I mean, Gabe Amo probably had the best night in the recent debate. But I don’t think he had the kind of night that was a direction changer of the race and structurally changed it. He tried the next day to keep things going and keep the attack on Regunberg’s answer on the debt limit going. But I don’t know that it’s the kind of stumble, that’s going to really hurt Regunberg at this point. I think the dynamics of the race are pretty well set. And the fact that he has to explain himself while it might not look good, and while he is being ganged up on by all the other candidates also doesn’t look great. But it also reinforces that perception that he is the man to beat that he is the front runner and makes him not seem like an insurgent but someone who has almost an incumbent quality.
Ian Donnis: Let’s face it, the next member of Congress from the first district is going to be the least influential member of Congress, fighting a years-long battle to be more influential due to a lack of seniority. Republicans hold the majority in the House right now, Patrick does it really make much of a difference in the practical world of politics, who wins this race on the Democratic side?
Patrick Anderson: I think in the short term in terms of things that voters will really notice. There aren’t going to be a huge number of differences between what any of the candidates would do practically. I think, for Regunberg, I think one thing to note is that he was fairly well-liked among lawmakers at the State House and is pretty good at the day to day meat and potatoes of lawmaking. So I don’t think that he would struggle up there to work with people and would probably fit in quite easily. But he would add that extra layer I think of kind of attention to progressive causes that you wouldn’t get to from the other candidates.
Ted Nesi: If I can jump, Ian. I think, I don’t want to say the stakes are super high by any means. But I do think there is an interesting choice about to happen, because you know, Rhode Island’s congressional delegation has historically been very congenial. Everyone follows Jack Reed’s lead, you know, you can’t get even when Sheldon Whitehouse disagrees with Reed, I can barely get a quote out of him about it because he doesn’t want to cross him. Aaron Regunberg is saying he wants to cut the budget for the military that Jack Reed writes by $100 billion. So it’s gonna be really interesting if first district voters decide to put a more Elizabeth Warren, Ed Markey type of Democrat in that will really be the first time that sort of Democrat is in Rhode Island’s congressional delegation so that will be a change even if it’s not exactly going to swing Capitol Hill dynamics.
Ian Donnis: Yeah, that’s a great point, Ted, and of course, Regunberg has gotten endorsements from progressive darlings like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio Cortez. Ted do you think Regunberg would go to the wall as a progressive if elected, potentially making him more vulnerable to a challenge next year if he does win this year, or do you think he would moderate his course somewhat.
Ted Nesi: I just think the power of incumbency for members of Congress, especially in the Northeast is so enormous, that I think Aaron Regunberg is probably more likely to draw a primary challenge, particularly next year, if he wins next week from people who say, hey, almost no one voted in that special election. Let’s get back to a Jack Reed, Sheldon Whitehouse style Democrat in this seat, I still think he’d be an overwhelming favorite, even if one of the people currently running against him runs because he will have the money that comes with incumbency, the profile that comes with it. And I learned voters, I think a lot of voters feel that taking somewhat taking office from someone is different from when it’s open, and you’re firing someone and that’s a big, that’s a bigger hurdle for a lot of voters to go over. So I think whoever wins is going to be in very strong position from September 6 on and we should say there’ll be a Republican of course in the fall, but presuming the Democrats hold the seat, I think that Democrat will probably be pretty strong no matter who it is.
Ian Donnis: One noteworthy element of the Democratic primary in CD-1 one is how the field includes a number of candidates who are women or people of color., Rhode Islanders, of course, have never elected a Democratic woman to Congress. Only Claudine Schneider, a Republican was elected in the past. We know how Lieutenant Governor Sabina Matos who was born in the Dominican Republic was front runner early on, but has been dogged by a signature-gathering controversy. Patrick, what is your sense of how the idea of electing someone other than just another white man affects the thinking of voters as they prepare to wrap up this race next week?
Patrick Anderson: I don’t know that it’s powerful enough to swing the race. It’s out there. And I think there will be a weird sense if Aaron Regunberg wins, that a progressive campaign prevented diversity from taking a step and that that’s keeping the congressional delegation all white men. I think that will kind of linger and be there for at least the next couple of years. But I don’t think that it’s at this point, it’s front and center enough in — the voters might — the voters who will actually turn out to swing the race at this point.
Ted Nesi: I mean, not only that, if Aaron Regunberg does win both of Rhode Islands house seats will be held by 30-something white men who went to Brown University and grew up upper middle class who currently live on the east side because magaziner just moved back temporarily. So that is quite I mean, David Cicilline has said to people, “Hey, at least I was gay.”
Ian Donnis: Let’s talk a little bit about campaign finance. Of course, a lot of money has been spent on this race by the candidates and by outside groups. But there’s not been a singularly memorable campaign ad like there was with Dan McKee, in the race for governor last year when he had the ad playing cards with his mother that really humanized McKee, he spoke to the camera, came across well, it was very effective ad. Patrick, your sense of the influence of advertising and money in this race?
Patrick Anderson: I don’t think it’s really swung things. I think that the ad that’s gotten the most notoriety is Sondra Cano’s. But I don’t think that that is the kind of memorable ad that’s really going to stick. And I think one thing I look at the advertising. Sabina Matos got a lot of help from the outside, but some of the people looking at the race have commented that it’s not the same as having that money and having that power in your campaign. And she’s been a little — while that has given her air cover those outside groups. It’s different than having that kind of money to use in your campaign for your own stuff.
Ian Donnis: Ted, as Patrick said, Sabina Matos has had about a three to one advantage or slightly more so in spending by outside Super PACs, but it seems like she’s just been dogged by relentless coverage of the signature issue. So your assessment of the campaign spending and advertising in the race?
Ted Nesi: I think two thoughts on that: the first one is: I think it’s showing once again we talk in campaign coverage about earned media, which is free news coverage and paid media where you’re buying commercials or sending mailers. Very bad earned media is exponentially more powerful than a whole lot of paid media. That’s what we see is happening to Sabina Matos that signature scandal and while I know some Democrats feel it was overblown, her campaign did lead to an ongoing criminal investigation because of what her vendor did. And so I think it’s hard to minimize that that was always going to be a big deal. The other thing is those you know, one thing I’ve learned from my years in television, it’s not just about the amount of airtime you buy, what are you showing in that airtime? And those super PAC ads were extremely generic. They will just like Sabina Matos, who never spoke I think in any of them. Sabina Matos: she’s a Democrat, she supports abortion rights. They needed to reassess by the end of July, Sabina Matos is in trouble. We need to rebuild her standing. It doesn’t feel like they ever did that.
Ian Donnis: Yeah, it kind of goes to my point how there hasn’t been a single memorable ad that has stuck in the mind of voters. Ted, let’s stick with you here. Another noteworthy thing about this race has been the lack of independent polling by media organizations. We know Brown University has kind of walked away from polling. And we’ve seen some internal polls from the campaign’s which have to be taken with a little bit of skepticism. But do you think this is a harbinger of what we’ll see in the future or channel 12 has done a number of polls in the past, do you think this is kind of an outlier?
Ted Nesi: I think it’s partly an outlier. It’s a special election, I’ll just I’ll be candid, it’s harder as someone who works in a newsroom and with you know, newsrooms all feeling a little tighter financially than we did 20 years ago, to argue for a poll that would be just serving Democratic primary special election voters. That means the poll, which is going to be expensive, no matter what we can’t say it also told us about how people feel about the Cranston armory project or the approval rating of the governor, it would just be this one time small electorate who’s winning or losing, I think it was just hard for media outlets at a time when there’s a lot of different places we’d like to put the money to put it into that. That said, it is it is so difficult to cover a race like this with only internal polls, and we are kind of flying by the seat of our pants as reporters. So hopefully, you know, someone we haven’t mentioned doesn’t win and we all look like fools but I think we do have a sense of where it stands.
Ian Donnis: Patrick, you and I did a debate or forum recently at RIPBS with the two Republicans running in CD-1: Gerry Leonard, longtime former Marine and former Middletown town councilor Terry Flynn. CD-1 is heavily Democratic, so a Republican faces a real tough haul. What is your outlook for November?
Patrick Anderson: Well, you want to talk about flying blind, we really have no idea what’s going on in the Republican primary. I mean, the internal polls would be so that we don’t even have there. So I mean, who knows? And a very small number of voters are going to decide that. I mean, that said, I think Gerry Leonard is is clearly the favorite in the Republican primary, but faces a very difficult time once it gets to the general election. Maybe there’s something he can do, especially if Aaron Regunberg is the candidate and there’s a real distinction there. But it would it’s a long shot.
Ian Donnis: All right, great discussion. Thank you so much for joining me the politics economics editor from WPRI TV channel 12, Ted, Nesi. And Statehouse reporter from the Providence Journal, Patrick Anderson.
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The profile of former Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo remains on the rise. Raimondo traveled to China this week to meet with officials there about trade and related economic issues. The trip underscores how Raimondo has become a key point person for President Biden — and that’s a long way from Gina from Smithfield. The U.S. relationship with China, one of the most important global relationships, is a work in progress. The same can be said about the future prospects of Raimondo, who is seen by some as a prospective presidential candidate in 2028. You can read more about that in my Friday TGIF column posting around 4 this afternoon on what used to be known as Twitter @IanDon and the publics radio dot org.
That’s our show for this week. Our producer is James Baumgartner.
I’m Ian Donnis and I’ll see you on the radio.
