Transcript:
Dave Fallon
Okay, Scott, first of all, we’ve been hearing the New Hampshire primary results dissected all day. So the first question is how did Bernie Sanders forge that close victory in New Hampshire?
Scott MacKay
Well, this is kind of interesting because Sanders won among union members, urban voters, people without college degrees and low income voters. He won in places like Manchester, Nashua. He won big in the liberal college towns like Keene, Plymouth and where the university New Hampshire is home to which is in Durham. Where he didn’t do well was in the more affluent communities along Route 93 near the Massachusetts State line, in fact that some of those communities, he actually finished third behind Klobuchar and Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
Dave Fallon
And of course, that victory of his was just a slim one.
Scott MacKay
It was not big like in 2016 when he blew Hillary Clinton out by more more than 20 points.
Dave Fallon
Massachusetts, 13 other states, they vote in the Super Tuesday matchups. That’s in about three weeks and what impact will the New Hampshire results have then?
Scott MacKay
Historically, New Hampshire has had a pretty big impact on the other New England states, particularly Massachusetts. Now, you have to understand that Super Tuesday is a big, big event. You got Massachusetts plus 13 other states including such huge delegate rich states as California. So I’m not sure Massachusetts is going to get as much attention as say New Hampshire got from the candidates. However, it’s an important state. In New England, it’s got the most delegates, it’s the most populous state, so it will be important. People will pay attention to it. Now it depends how fractured and divided this race is coming in to Massachusetts. I think it’s particularly important for the local New England Folks, particularly I would say Elizabeth Warren.
Dave Fallon
She didn’t do well in New Hampshire, and what is it going to take to resurrect her campaign?
Scott MacKay
Well, she’s got a couple of states before that, of course, the Nevada caucuses are coming up. And then South Carolina, however, she’s not polling well among African American voters, who in South Carolina are a very, very large part of the electorate – more than 60%. So you have to think that if she doesn’t really do well, in Massachusetts, I don’t see how she can continue her campaign beyond Super Tuesday.
Dave Fallon
Senator Amy Klobuchar, what about that?
Scott MacKay
Well, Klobuchar won a lot of the late deciding voters. Most of the pundits in New Hampshire will say that’s because she did a very, very good job in the last debate, everybody seemed to like her. She seemed to hit on the moderate path you keeps talking about someone who can appeal to the Midwest. And we all know one thing about this year, is that electability is foremost in the minds of a lot of democratic voters. And if you look at the sheer numbers, Buttigieg and Klobuchar got over 50% of the vote, whereas the left, more liberal candidates, Warren and Sanders, together only got about 35%. So I think there’s still a strong, moderate group here. And that going forward, we’re going to see who can capture that.
Dave Fallon
Now, Rhode Island’s primary, April 28. And you and I have covered politics for a while around here and and you know, during presidential races, usually, it’s not the candidate who shows up visiting it’s the candidate’s cousin or whatever. And this time, though, is Rhode Island going to be relevant in the presidential election, or more more of an afterthought.
Scott MacKay
Yeah, you know, Rhode Island is often as you mentioned, the orphan cousin of presidential primaries, and yet in 2008, when there was a close contest between Barack Obama then Senator Obama and Hillary Clinton, it was a very contested race with both candidates making big rallies here in Providence, putting a lot of money into TV and a ground game. The same thing happened in 2016. When you had Sanders who won Rhode Island against Secretary Clinton, who again, came here a lot did a lot of stumping the endorsement she had endorsements from all the major politicians in Rhode Island. However, Sanders cleaned her clock. Rhode Island will only be relevant if this race is still fractured and divided by April 28.
Dave Fallon
The Public’s Radio Scott McKay. Scott, Thanks
Scott MacKay
Anytime.
