Expect the unexpected when it comes to politics, right? Yes and no. While Tuesday’s presidential election offered a big surprise, General Assembly results in the Ocean State mostly represent a lack of change. So thanks for stopping by for my weekly column. Your tips and comments remain welcome, and you can follow me through the week on the twitters. Here we go.
1. As Election Day dawned earlier this week, 538.com put Hillary Clinton‘s chances of victory at better than 70 percent. The Upshot, run by The New York Times, was more confident, calling Clinton an 85 percent lock to take the White House. In the end, however, the economic anxiety that propelled Bill Clinton in 1992 worked this time to Donald Trump‘s advantage. Sure, there are other factors, including how Trump got 1.9 million fewer votes than Mitt Romney in 2012, and Hillary Clinton got 6 million fewer than President Obama that year. And while many of Trump’s unexpurgated pronouncements would doom most candidates, they seemed to enhance the Republican’s outsider brand in a change election. Not coincidentally, Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan speaks in large part to the economic fears of a shrinking middle class. Those concerns can be seen in how Trump beat Clinton 55 percent to 41 percent in Johnston, 48 percent to 46 percent in West Warwick, 53 percent to 40 percent in Coventry, and 57 percent to 35 percent in Burrillville. Elsewhere, Clinton’s margin of victory in many RI communities was far thinner than would be expected for a Democrat. Whether Trump can deliver on his promise of economic improvement and bringing offshore jobs back to the US is a whole other question. But with the US mired in a time of slow growth and stagnant wages, it’s no surprise that many voters are jittery. Economics professor Robert Gordon contends we’ve moved beyond the unusually prosperous expansion sparked by such fundamental innovations as electricity and the internal-combustion engine. Even if he’s right (and Governor Gina Raimondo tells me she doesn’t buy Gordon’s theory), an economic laggard like Rhode Island still has considerable room for improvement. The challenge for Raimondo and other pols is that investing in things like skills, computer science and potential new job sectors typically takes an extended amount of time to yield benefits.
2. The same tide of dissatisfaction that propelled Trump could be seen in Republican Steven Frias‘ challenge to House Speaker Nicholas Mattiello. Although Frias, National Committeeman for the RI GOP, was quite reluctant to embrace Trump, he did frame his race against Mattiello as a referendum on the status quo in Rhode Island. That was an appealing message in conservative-leaning House District 15, and Frias bested Mattiello, with a 147-vote lead, in the initial count of votes on Tuesday. Yet the mail ballot operation led by longtime RI operative Jeff Britt represented an ace in the hole for Mattiello, and the speaker proclaimed victory when he swept into the Oaklawn Grange Tuesday night. Two days later, after the Board of Elections added the mail ballots, Mattiello led Frias by 65 votes. Frias had already called foul, pointing to what he called suspicious activity involving some mail ballots. Yet one episode featured a voter who cast his support for Frias. In the other, Frias said a caller who would not identify himself indicated that some mail ballots were completed without being witnessed by a notary. The Board of Elections may consider Frias’ request for an investigation next week. Barring a surprise, Mattiello is poised to win his second full term as speaker in January, and then move ahead with his stated goal of delivering some real relief on the car tax.
3. Speaker Mattiello‘s selection of state Rep. Joseph Shekarchi (D-Warwick) as his new majority leader is hardly a surprise. Shekarchi, 54, has decades of political experience, he’s well-liked in the House, and his even-keeled disposition was evident while chairing the House Labor Committee. With his move up the legislative ladder, Shekarchi acknowledges he’s now likely to remain in the House rather than pursuing his longtime interest of one day becoming mayor of Warwick (“Scott Avedisian is a very good mayor — he’ll be mayor for life,” Shekarchi said). The Warwick lawmaker grew up in a family active in Democratic politics. He went on to serve as a House page, majored in poli-sci at Suffolk University, and over the years worked for a string of RI pols in campaign or administration roles, including Joe Garrahy, Frank Flaherty, Joe Paolino and Bruce Sundlun. In 1992, Shekarchi piloted Paul Tsongas‘ upset win over Bill Clinton in Rhode Island’s presidential primary. After a bit of a hiatus from politics while focusing on his law practice, Shekarchi said he passed when Lincoln Chafee spoke with him about managing his independent run for governor in 2010. A bit later, Shekarchi said, Raymond D. Simone, RI chief of staff for Senator Jack Reed, told him, “You’re going to run Gina Raimondo‘s campaign. I said, Gina Who?” Raimondo went on to get 62 percent of the vote in her 2010 run for treasurer (and Shekarchi, who’s known for his outsized legislative campaign war chest, points with pride to how Raimondo’s campaign that year ended with a $300,000 surplus.) By 2012, Shekarchi ran for state rep, taking over the seat formerly held by longtime Warwick Rep. Robert Flaherty. During Thursday’s Democratic caucus at Chapel Grille in Cranston, Shekarchi addressed the issue of his overlapping political relationships with Governor Raimondo and the House. He said he remains a friend of the governor, but that his first allegiance is to his constituents, Speaker Mattiello and his fellow state reps. As far as being majority leader, “I’m excited and happy to be chosen by my colleagues,” Shekarchi said. He said he’s looking forward to managing the floor calendar in the House, supporting key priorities, and keeping an open door.
4. “The electoral college is a disaster for a democracy,” Donald Trump tweeted on November 6, 2012 (h/t @StephMachado)
5. Well, so much for tolls as a volatile issue in General Assembly races. The only House incumbent to lose his race, Rep. Michael Marcello (D-Scituate) trumpeted his vote against RhodeWorks, and the only Senate incumbent to get bounced, Sen. John Pagliarini (R-Tiverton) was an outspoken critic of the pending tolls on big trucks. This isn’t to say that tolls were deciding factors in those outcomes. Yet The Gaspee Project and The Roosevelt Society RI spent well more than $100,000 on targeting lawmakers who voted for RhodeWorks — and that effort produced a goose egg as far as legislative changes. Asked for comment, RI Trucking Association President/CEO Christopher J. Maxwell said, “Rhode Islanders lost a golden opportunity to change the political climate of our state. In the end, the voters chose not to equate the fact that those who voted for tolls not only voted for reckless tax increase on our supply chain, but opened the door to the disease that is tolling. With the opportunity for a repeal less likely, we to move the next phase of our opposition which is to formulate a legal challenge of several glaring illegalities of RhodeWorks. The changes in Washington may provide yet another opportunity to snuff out interstate tolling when common sense policymaking returns to town.”
6. House Democrats gained two seats in this week’s election, increasing their numbers from 62 to 64 of 75 state reps. Across the rotunda, Portsmouth Democrat Jim Seveney defeated Sen. John Pagliarini (R-Tiverton), cutting GOP representation in the Senate from six to five seats. All told, Democrats will now control 97 of 113 legislative seats. State GOP Chairman Brandon Bell expressed disappointment the GOP didn’t do better, although he notes that RI Republicans usually face an uphill battle in presidential election years. Some Republicans think the focus on Steven Frias‘ race detracted from other campaigns; Bell disagrees. He concedes, though, that the local GOP would do well to emulate their sister party in Connecticut, which gained legislative seats (and has paid staff). Meanwhile, the crowded fields sparked by GOP factions spoiled Republican hopes of gaining ground in at least two districts. In Cumberland, Democratic Rep. Mia Ackerman won with 48 percent of the vote, less than the 52 percent split by independent Paul Santoro and Republican Ronald Rossi. And in Warwick, Democratic Rep-elect Camille Vella-Wilkinson made it through with 44 percent, less than the 52 percent divided between Republican Michael Penta and independent Michael Underwood.
7. While the Rhode Island Democratic Party recently updated their platform, the story of how this happened has not been told — until now: Party Chairman Joseph McNamara made a decision to try to bring the disparate Democratic elements together to hammer out a platform. McNamara appointed Matthew Jerzyk, the former community and union organizer-turned-deputy legal counsel to the speaker, as chair of the committee. Joining Jerzyk on the platform committee were a diverse group of Rhode Island Democrats: State Rep. Aaron Regunberg (D-Providence); LGBTQ Chair Anthony DeRose, Burrillville Chair Stephen Mulcahey; Young Democrat Charon Rose; Warwick Chair Robert Farrell, Barrington Chair June Speakman; Bernie Sanders delegate Lauren Niedel, political activist Ani Haroian; and state Rep. Marvin Abney (D-Newport). Contrary to other media reports indicating that the new RI Democratic Party platform was a post-primary nod to the party’s progressive wing , the platform committee began its work in August. From then until October, the committee worked on the platform, section by section, ultimately reaching consensus on a platform that was sent to the full convention held at the Party HQ on October 13. The session include more than an hour of debate on a range of issues, including abortion and gun control. Jerzyk, who led the discussion, indicated that tabling the platform for two years was an option, but that a lot of work had gone into striving for consensus. In the end, the platform was approved, marking a major update for a document that hadn’t been revised in eight years.
8. State Rep. Michael Chippendale (R-Foster), House Minority Leader Brian Newberry‘s preferred successor as GOP leader in the House, is confident he has the votes to lead the 10-member Republican caucus in the new session. Chippendale said GOP lawmakers are expected to stage a caucus some time this month. For her part, rival Rep. Patricia Morgan (R-West Warwick) isn’t conceding the fight. “I’ll make my case to the caucus and we’ll see,” she said.
9. Two years ago, the Daily Beast dubbed Gina Raimondo “the only Democratic star of 2014.” But Raimondo, while talking with RI Public Radio early in 2016, ruled out taking a post in a possible Hillary Clinton administration. In an interview with Bloomberg, she offered these comments on the incoming Trump administration in DC: “I need to find a way to work with them, because I have a job, which is to get Rhode Islanders back to work. And so I’m a relentless advocate for the people of Rhode Island. I’ll go anywhere, talk to anyone, work with anyone to get my people good jobs, good schools and good infrastructure, and that’s what I’m going to do with the Trump administration, advocate for Rhode Island.”
10. Remember when Patrick Lynch, during the 2010 gubernatorial campaign, likened polls to perfume — lovely to admire, but dangerous to swallow? That’s basically an acknowledgement of how polls (if done properly) are a snapshot in time, not a prediction. And many polls suggested a close race between Trump and Clinton by the time of Election Day. Some others got it right, particularly American University professor Allan Lichtman, who proclaimed for months that Trump would be the winner. Lichtman, who uses a series of questions for making his prediction, also asserts that Trump will be impeached by a Republican Congress.
11. Massachusetts voters approved legalizing marijuana and said no to expanding charter schools. They also rejected adding a second slots parlor.
12. RIPR’s Elisabeth Harrison does some fact-checking on Warwick Republican Joe Trillo, who chaired Trump’s RI campaign. Excerpt: “To sum up, Trillo has a point when he says undocumented immigrants contribute to state spending on health and human services. They can receive emergency medical services and prenatal care. They can also enroll in public schools and qualify for in-state tuition at public colleges and universities, although they cannot apply for financial aid. But it’s important to keep all of this in perspective. Undocumented immigrants are not eligible for the majority of state health and human services programs, and the population of undocumented immigrants, both statewide and nationwide, is relatively small. In Rhode Island, the most recent numbers from the Pew Research Center, estimate roughly 30,000 undocumented immigrants – about 3 percent of the total state population.”
13. Jim Vincent, head of the Providence NAACP, talks about his view that Trump’s campaign included an undercurrent of racism from the outset. Meanwhile, Mario Bueno of Progreso Latino offered this comment about Trump’s potential impact on some immigration amnesty policies: “Because they impact a lot of hardworking people, students, dreamers, who are here in the United States, who have been here since childhood, we are fearful for the future, but we are also hopeful the new president will be able to embrace all communities including immigrant communities.”
14. Kudos and congratulations to the great Joe Baker, who is retiring after working close to 32 years as a reporter for the Newport Daily News. Joe was a respected presence at the Statehouse for many years, and we wish him the best in his retirement.
15. Rhode Island native Mike Flynn, a retired Army lieutenant general, helped lead “Lock Her Up” chants during President-elect Trump’s campaign, and he may get some kind of role in the administration.
16. Scott MacKay makes some great points in his weekly essay, including how the news media — which has suffered waves of destabilizing cost-cutting — should have better understood the economic worries of American voters: “There is a grand irony here: If any business should have understood the concerns of left-behind working class voters, you’d think it should have been the media, especially what’s left of the mainstream newspapers and television networks. Has any major institution in the country suffered more from economic change than the media? News outlets have been devastated by endless rounds of layoffs, pay cuts and buy outs. News gathering budgets have been slashed, bureaus shuttered. Even such elite institutions as the New York Times and the Washington Post have been affected. Yet as writer Thomas Frank, points out, big media underestimated the mistrust among average Americans in government and politics.” …. Meanwhile, a good read: “Can the media recover from this election?“
17. By helping Democratic challenger Marcia Ranglin-Vassell to knock off House Majority Leader John DeSimone (D-Providence), and Jason Knight to defeat Jan Malik (D-Warren), the Rhode Island Working Families Party emerged as one of the top winners of the state’s election season. Other winning candidates supported by RIWP include incumbent Reps. David Bennett (Warwick), Kathy Fogarty (South Kingstown), Jean Philippe Barros (Pawtucket), and Lauren Carson (Newport); Rep-elects Evan Shanley (Warwick) and Susan Donovan (Bristol); primary winners Rep. Teresa Tanzi (South Kingstown), Rep-elect Moira Walsh (Providence) and Sen-elect Jeanine Calkin (Warwick). In a statement, RIWP said the election results prove “voters are hungry for public policy that addresses social and economic justice and a wake-up call for conservative Democrats in the state legislature.” Said Georgia Hollister Isman, state director of Rhode Island Working Families: “Something beyond just winning elections is happening here. Motivated by frustration with Democratic politicians who haven’t fought hard enough for us, Rhode Island Working Families worked with a whole new cohort of community activists who decided to run for office. Our next task is to organize to make the values of Rhode Island working families into public policy priorities in the legislature. This weeks’ election results are only the beginning.”
18. Jim Ludes, director of the Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy, was kind enough to ask me to moderate a panel discussion there this week on fallout from the presidential race. One of the most noteworthy comments was Ludes’ observation that foreign policy watchers think a nuclear crisis involving North Korea is just a matter of time. And with Trump having said he doesn’t want to rule anything out, “I’m not sure we have a sense of where the red lines are for Donald Trump,” Ludes said.
19. The Boston Herald recently reported PawSox President Charles Steinberg‘s assertion that the PawSox “finished the 2016 season with attendance numbers that held the line from 2015, a triumph considering attendance had been slipping over a period of decades.” Read this story from WPRI’s Tim White, and you may draw a different conclusion, even with an array of new promotions being offered in Pawtucket.
20. Rhode Islanders overwhelmingly approved Question 2, restoring state Ethics Commission conflict of interest oversight of the General Assembly. Yet as evidenced by the situation that prevailed around 2002, the mere presence of the Ethics Commission isn’t always a guarantee of support for the commission’s mission.
22. James Fallows, national correspondent for The Atlantic, spent part of the campaign season traveling around small-town America — and he didn’t find the visceral dissatisfaction associated with many supporters of Trump’s campaign. Here’s an excerpt from his conversation this week with NPR’s Terry Gross, on how Trump broke campaign norms: “I think national politics has become what you – what I think of as either a religious affiliation or a particularly sort of acrid sporting team loyalty where people who you otherwise can work with and compromise with and build a future with you either really feel connected to or you really feel just are the other based on which team they’re on, whether they’re on the Republican team, the Trump team, or the anti-Trump team.”
