Most of the media coverage of last week’s Rhode Island primaries focused on the statewide contests for governor and lieutenant governor. But RIPR political analyst Scott MacKay says if you are seeking clues to change, look at General Assembly and city council contests.
If you listened to radio or watched television on primary night, the news was familiar. Smiling and basking in a chorus of cheers on your screens were the governor nominees — Republican Allan Fung and Democrat Gina Raimondo. After their smashing victories, attention turned to the Democratic lieutenant governor campaign, where incumbent Dan McKee of Cumberland squeaked past his progressive challenger, Providence State Rep. Aaron Regunberg.
The general election governor replay of 2014 and McKee’s narrow win may lead many to conclude that voters anointed the same old same old.
But a peer beneath the veneer of Rhode Island politics shows that the insurgent energy that has roiled Democratic politics across the nation and put more women and progressives in power has washed into the Ocean State.
Rhode Island is what political scientists call a weak governor state. The General Assembly has most of the influence, particularly when it comes to spending taxpayer money. Unlike many states, the governor doesn’t have a line-item veto over state spending.
This gives the House speaker outsized power. The current speaker, Nick Mattiello, a Cranston Democrat, had a tough primary day. Some of this was due to his strategy along with voters fed up with his policies. He now faces a tough re-election against a Republican he barely bested two years ago in his conservative Cranston district.
Mattiello’s most embarrassing defeat came in Providence, where progressive incumbent Moira Walsh defeated Michael Earnheart, a onetime Donald Trump supporter. Walsh frosted the speaker and his leadership team by being an outspoken first-term lawmaker who even criticized some colleagues for too much Statehouse drinking.
The speaker engineered a Democratic Party endorsement of Earnheart. That was rescinded after photos of Earnheart at a Trump rally surfaced on social media. This one made national news as women’s groups cried foul. Mattiello created a martyr in Walsh. Liberals and women’s groups coalesced around Walsh and she won.
Mattiello lost another crucial Providence House seat as Marcia Ranglin-Vassell won reelection in her district in Elmhurst and Mount Pleasant. It wasn’t just Providence that saw progressives flex their muscles.
The East Bay suburbs of Barrington, Warren and Bristol once sent Republicans and conservative Democrats to the Assembly. Last week, progressives triumphed in Barrington as Liana Cassar defeated John Chung, a Mattiello backed law professor. In neighboring Bristol, progressive Laufton Ascencao stomped the establishment candidate, Andrew Tyska, a town councilor.
Assembly elections are often friends and neighbors contests, where the Portuguese Club faces off against the Italian-American Lodge or the Friendly Sons of St. Patrick. No so much these days. Progressive groups, including the RI Working Families Party, the National Organization for Women, Planned Parenthood and gun control advocates have become deeply involved in Assembly and even city council campaigns.
What does this all mean for policy? Well, even if reelected speaker, Mattiello likely won’t be able to thwart tougher gun control and women’s rights initiatives, particularly on abortion rights and equal pay. Should Mattiello lose in November, there will be a new speaker. Progressives could coalesce around one of their own, such as Providence Rep. Chris Blazejewski, a Harvard-trained lawyer who represents a safely liberal district in the Fox Point neighborhood.
Much of the shift to the left at the Statehouse is due to the Republican Party’s failure to recruit candidates. Conservatives and the small business community often grouse about a lack of Assembly clout. When was the last time they actually worked with Republicans to put together a slate of electable candidates?
When it comes to successful women aspirants, the most dramatic victories came in Providence City Council elections. Newcomers include progressives Katherine Kerwin and Rachel Miller, who beat Buddy Cianci’s 2014 campaign manager on Federal Hill. For the first time, a majority of the 15-member council will be female. For too long, the capital city’s council has acted like 15 parish priests who care most about their own neighborhoods and jobs and patronage. It would be an improvement if the new members work to better address citywide issues.
In politics, change often springs from the bottom up, not the top down.
Scott MacKay’s commentary can be heard every Monday morning at 6:45 and 8:45 and at 5:44 in the afternoon. You can also follow his political analysis at our “On Politics” blog at RIPR.org
