The first general election poll is out in the Rhode Island governor campaign and the kickoff television debate is Thursday. RIPR political analyst Scott MacKay says Republican Allan Fung’s biggest obstacle is the lack of unity in his own party.
It wasn’t that long ago that the Rhode Island Republican Party was a viable force in state elections. Voters in what has been a reliably Democratic state since Franklin Roosevelt’s administration once regularly elected Republicans to the governorship and the U.S. House and Senate.
Think John Chafee, Ed DiPrete, Linc Almond, Ron Machtley, Don Carcieri and Claudine Schneider. Republicans were always an uneasy coalition; a mélange of Cranston Italian-Americans, pedigreed prostestants and a smattering of Jews. What they did well in general elections was to sweep differences aside and present a unified face to voters.
Now, Cranston Mayor Allan Fung is the GOP’s gubernatorial nominee. Fresh off a resounding primary victory, he trails incumbent Democrat Gina Raimondo in the first general election public opinion survey done by veteran WPRI television pollster Joe Fleming. The poll, which carries an error margin of about five percentage points, put Raimondo in the lead with 43 percent, Fung at 36 percent and Republican-turned independent Joe Trillo at 7 percent. Thirteen percent are either undecided or supporting fringe candidates.
The most striking finding of the poll is what any political observer with a grasp of the obvious is aware of: that Trillo is little more than a Fung spoiler. Trillo, the onetime conservative Warwick state rep and big Donald Trump booster, has about as much chance of being elected governor as he does being appointed U.S. Navy secretary. But he is killing Fung’s chances.
Pollster Fleming found that almost 70 percent of Trillo voters said that Raimondo has done a poor job as governor. Fleming says he see scant chance that Trillo supporters would consider casting a ballot for the state’s first woman governor. But if Trillo wasn’t in the race, they would likely be open to Fung.
The other element in play here is the sore loser act of House Republican leader Patricia Morgan of West Warwick, who was blown out by Fung in the primary. She has yet to endorse the Cranston mayor and says she may not.
When you are a minority party in a blue state, the only route to statewide victory is unity. Who knows what motivates Trillo and Morgan in putting the shiv in Fung’s back. What we do know is that Trillo wasn’t happy when Fung in 2013 didn’t support his candidacy for Republican National Committeeman. (Fung backed Steve Frias.)
Brian Newberry is a North Smithfield Republican state rep who was once House Republican leader. He served with both Morgan and Trillo and says he knows them both ”very well.” Says Newberry, “In my opinion the only reason they aren’t supporting Allan Fung is that they just have personal grudges for petty reasons.”
Both Fung and Raimondo are trying to dirty up each other in negative television ads. As the Red Sox go to the bullpen, viewers are assaulted with Raimondo spots claiming Cranston has become a Third World country since Fung became mayor. Then before the relief pitcher has finished his warm-up pitches, comes a Fung ad asserting that Raimondo has driven the state’s economy into the ground.
This stuff isn’t remotely true. Both Fung and Raimondo are imperfect politicians who are trying to do their best. With her Harvard, Yale and Oxford degrees, Raimondo could be making Nantucket summer home money pushing paper for the one-percent from an office kissing the clouds in Manhattan. She hails from a modest background and made her academic bones with scholarships.
Fung in some ways has an even more remarkable story. A son of Chinese immigrants, he follows the pattern of generations of Rhode Islanders. He worked hard, took advantage of public schools and Rhode Island College and has done a mostly good job running the state’s second largest city.
Voters should watch the WPRI television debate Thursday evening. This first face-to-face joust of the campaign hopefully will be a chance to move away from the nonsense and allow Rhode Islanders to compare the two candidates on serious issues.
The best thing that could happen is for the focus to be on Fung and Raimondo. One of them is going win the race for governor.
Scott MacKay’s commentary can be heard every Monday morning at 6:45 and 8:45 and at 5:44 in the afternoon. You can also follow his political reporting and analysis at the “On Politics” blog at RIPR.org
