While many Ocean State voters are more focused on August vacations than politics, candidates for the legislature are knocking on doors, appearing at coffee hours and pleading for votes at taverns and ethnic clubs.
The September primaries –where the crucial decisions are made – are only about a month away. This was the year Republicans vowed to make inroads on the huge House and Senate Democratic majorities. Yet the way things are turning out, this isn’t going to happen, unless you believe in leaving the lights on for Jimmy Hoffa .
A month ago, the Statehouse follies seemed a harbinger of Republican hopes. The stench of Democratic corruption spewed from the capitol, giving the GOP some issues. There was the law-enforcement probe of House Finance Chairman Ray Gallison of Bristol, which not only ensnared him but revealed a broken, patronage-fueled system of legislative grants. Then there is the farce that has become Providence Democratic Rep. John Carnevale, vice-chair of the finance panel, who has been tossed off the ballot because he doesn’t live where he says he does.
And for the first time, voters no longer have the so-called master lever option of voting a straight party ballot.
These topics and others – including the state’s ongoing economic doldrums – ought to have helped Republicans pick up seats. But the GOP leadership doesn’t seem to grasp the ancient political adage – that you can’t beat somebody with nobody. One-third of lawmakers are running unopposed. Four of the 12 Republican House incumbents decided not to run for reelection. The party’s able House chief, Brian Newberry of North Smithfield, is stepping down as minority leader. Once again the GOP can’t recruit enough promising candidates.
There is always left-right conflict in politics. The grand irony in the current Rhode Island election is that the challenge to the Statehouse status quo is coming from the left, as progressive and liberal candidates are campaigning against incumbent conservative Democrats. And Democrats are also poised to switch some open seats from Republican to Democratic.
Take the Warwick seat held forever by Joe Trillo, an outspoken conservative and Donald Trump backer. Even the Republican Warwick mayor, Scott Avedisian, says that Democrat Evan Shanley is poised to capture this open seat. Legislative races in the state’s cozy districts usually come down to friends-and-neighbors contests. Shanley has more of both than his GOP opponent, Stacia Huyler, who Avesidian says has yet to return his phone calls.
The Gallison departure in Bristol opened a seat in a community that has an active Republican Party. Yet, Democrat Susan Donovan, a retired school teacher, looks like the pre-election favorite if she runs a vigorous campaign. In nearby Warren, Jason Knight, a young lawyer is challenging incumbent Jan Malik in the Democratic primary. Across the state in Coventry, watch for former rep Lisa Tomasso to give Republican Sherry Roberts a strong challenge. In West Warwick, Democrat Anthony Paolino is running hard against Republican Patricia Morgan, who wants to be Republican House leader.
One primary contest being watched with a jeweler’s eye is Marcia Ranglin-Vassell’s Providence challenge to Democratic Majority Leader John DeSimone, an old school pol once nicknamed `Johnny Jobs’ for his prowess at putting allies on the public payroll. House Speaker Nick Mattiello is safe next month, but faces a credible Republican contender in November, who is likely to be Steve Frias, a lawyer and GOP national committeeman.
Tip O’Neill’s famous chestnut is that all politics is local. But this year national elections are playing a role in the respective strength of the parties. The Trump Republican ascendancy and Bernie Sanders big Rhode Island Democratic primary win over Hillary Clinton are having an impact.
New Englanders don’t trust a party run by preachers and plutocrats. When a staunch conservative like Trillo says the Republican platform on social issues is too conservative, party poohbahs ought to pay attention. Avedisian, the most successful and durable of the state’s Republican pols, says he’s voting for Trump but also admits his nomination is making it harder to attract young Rhode Islanders to carry the GOP banner.
Sanders has empowered a generation of young Democrats, some of whom are already running for local offices. It is these folks who represent the party’s future.
There are few things the Statehouse needs more than a vibrant two-party system. You may wonder why too many lawmakers don’t listen to their constituents. Well, when a third of them don’t have any opposition and many others face only token campaigns, the answer is simple. They don’t have to.
So in 2016, things political are more likely to stay the same than change much. What change does come may well be from the left, rather than the right.
Scott MacKay’s commentary can be heard every Monday on Morning Edition at 6:45 and 8:45 and on All Things Considered at 5:44. You can also follow his political commentary at our `On Politics’ blog at RIPR.org. Scott will be on vacation this week and will return August 8th.
