Summer is fading, the kids are headed back to school and the political campaign season is getting serious. RIPR political analyst Scott MacKay looks at the biggest upcoming Rhode Island statewide primary contests.
Conventional wisdom says that the Ocean State is headed for a rematch of the 2014 governor’s pitting Republican Allan Fung against Democrat Gina Raimondo.
Governor Raimondo, of the multi-million dollar campaign fund-raising haul, has a record to defend. But don’t expect to her debate her September primary opponents – former Secretary of State Matt Brown and onetime State Rep. Spencer Dickinson.
Brown, Dickinson and the good government types are hammering away at Raimondo’s decision to deflect person-to-person face offs before the primary. Whether to debate or not is linked to campaign strategy, not what’s necessarily good for the voters or democracy. What this shows is that Raimondo’s polling must suggest that she has a comfortable lead and doesn’t have to worry about the nomination, so long as her turnout operations is firing on all cylinders.
The principal foe is Brown, who is running at her from the left, trying to capture the muscle that the Democratic progressive wing has flexed around a divided country in the Trump era. Like the governor, Brown is an Ivy League educated candidate who is a fine messenger for his views. What he hasn’t been adept at is raising the money and building the organization needed to successfully take on an incumbent.
Brown has positioned himself as against much of the Raimondo agenda, from her support for the Burrillville fossil-fuel plant to women’s issues and renewable energy. He has gained some traction from activists, but hasn’t attracted support from reliable party liberals who have a history of churning out votes, particularly the left side of organized labor.
It was telling when the National Education Association of Rhode Island, the influential teacher union declined to endorse Brown. Many of their members haven’t forgiven the governor for cutting their pensions when she was general treasurer back in 2011. Then two years ago, Raimondo vetoed the continuing contract provision teachers wanted. Despite that, the union obviously doesn’t think Brown can win.
Dickinson’s campaign is underfunded and hasn’t generated much support. A crucial voter pool for Brown will be supporters of the slate of progressive candidates running for the General Assembly and the organizing done by by Aaron Regunberg, the energetic Providence state rep now running for lieutenant governor. Unlike Brown, Regunberg has been successful at raising money and building a voter turnout operation. The question for Regunberg is whether his Statehouse activism on such issues as abortion rights and paid family leave can overcome incumbent Dan McKee’s establishment support. Regunberg does have some labor backing; the NEA has endorsed him.
Raimondo should win by double-digits. Anything less will be viewed as vulnerability in the general election. She should be concerned about are her lackluster job approval polling numbers. Particularly after spending more than $1 million on television spots and the state’s improving employment data.
One curve ball was the Pawtucket Red Sox decision to abandon Rhode Island for a new stadium to be built in Worcester. Raimondo has taken some flak for a lack of leadership, but you have to wonder if the people criticizing her were ever going to vote for her. She will try to finesse the matter by either blaming Democratic House Speaker Nick Mattiello of Cranston, or asserting that trying to match the juicy Massachusetts taxpayer subsidy for team would have been irresponsible.
On the Republican side, Fung has taken a different stance than his last campaign. Four years ago, the mayor was accessible and regularly answered media questions. Now he has buttoned his lip. For almost a month, yours truly has been seeking an answer to a simple question—does he support the Roe V. Wade abortion standard . So far, no reply.
Fung has limited debates to one on a small Woonsocket radio station. He has been dogged for shunning verbal jousts by his principal opponent, State Rep. Patricia Morgan of West Warwick. But Morgan hasn’t raised much money and is lagging Fung in establishment support. Businessman Giovanni Feroce doesn’t seem to be a force.
Trying to handicap elections in 2018 is a fools errand. Yet, it would be a huge surprise if either Raimondo or Fung loses their primary.
Scott MacKay’s commentary can be heard every Monday morning at 6:45 and 8:45 and at 5:44 in the afternoon. You can also follow his political reporting and analysis at our “On Politics” blog at RIPR.org
