There are times in campaigns when money, national trends, incumbency and some luck all combine to sweep the tail winds behind a candidate. Democratic U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse appears to be benefitting from all that in his reelection effort against Republican Robert Flanders.
Polling done by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center for The Public’s Radio, ABC6 and The Providence Journal puts Whitehouse at 57 percent, Flanders at 33 percent, with just a small group undecided. With less than a month until decision day, this is a formidable bulge for Whitehouse.
At age 68, Flanders is running his first statewide race. But he’s no neophyte in Rhode Island legal and political circles. Several years back, when Flanders was tapped for a federal judgeship, Whitehouse called him a “very capable guy.”
These candidates know each other; how could they not given Rhode Island’s cozy legal community. They are both Ivy League educated lawyers; Flanders a Brown graduate and Whitehouse a Yale grad. During the 1991 state credit union crisis, Whitehouse was then-Gov. Bruce Sundlun’s Statehouse legal counsel. Flanders was Sundlun’s personal lawyer. It was Flanders who represented Sundlun, a colorful pol, in one of the governor’s more bizarre episodes. That was when Sundlun shot raccoons in his backyard. Flanders got the matter dismissed.
Flanders has a fine story to tell. A son of the working class, he won a Brown scholarship, where he excelled as a student and athlete. He held records for the longest touchdown kick return and was a baseball standout, good enough to play for a Detroit Tigers minor league team. He worked a series of mundane jobs to help pay for college and law school at Harvard, including trash collector, truck driver and dishwasher.
An acclaimed lawyer, Flanders served on the Barrington Town Council, was head of the state education board and was a state Supreme Court justice. He also led the Central Falls receivership.
His problem is that not enough voters know all this. The poll showed that nearly 40 percent of voters don’t know much about him. This is where money comes in; Whitehouse raised more than $6 million in this election cycle, while Flanders has harvested less than $1 million. Flanders did not have the money he needed to introduce himself in a favorable manner to voters.
Another challenge is that national Republican money and focus is on other Senate campaigns across the nation. Republicans are working furiously to keep their narrow Senate majority. Most of the party’s money and resources are pouring into red states with close contests. Rhode Island is not on this radar.
Yet, the steepest hill Flanders has to climb is running as a Republican in a Democratic state in the Age of President Trump. All recent Rhode Island polling shows Trump widely unpopular with more than half the electorate disapproving of his presidency.
Then there is the yawning gender gap. The Journal, The Public’s Radio and ABC6 poll showed that 60 percent of women approved of Whitehouse, against 50 percent of men. Just 23 percent of women have a favorable opinion of Flanders compared to 39 percent of men.
In their first televised debate, Flanders came out firing with both barrels, hitting Whitehouse for his aggressive questioning of Brett Kavanaugh during the Supreme Court confirmation mess. Flanders said Whitehouse embarrassed the state. He calls the incumbent a “doofus” and a “gasbag.”
Whitehouse parried the accusations, simply referring to Flanders as “my Republican opponent.” Flanders had a tortuous time defending Trump, asserting he deserved an A- grade on policy issues but a C- for tweeting and personal issues. Whitehouse gives Trump a D, which is where a majority of Rhode Island voters stand.
Brown political scientist Wendy Schiller says Flanders should have spent more time talking about how he is a problem-solver who is more in line with the average voter than the silver-spooned Whitehouse.
Flanders has tried to make much of Whitehouse’s fixation on climate change, but the Republican doesn’t seem to be getting traction here. Maybe folks in the Ocean State are as worried about the environment as Whitehouse.
As the days dwindle to November 6, Flanders is going to have to do something to change the dynamic of the campaign. If not, Whitehouse looks to be headed for a third term.
Scott MacKay’s commentary can be heard every Monday morning at 6:45 and 8:45 and at 5:44 in the afternoon. You can also follow his commentary and analysis at our “On Politics blog at our web site.
