Since the dawn of the Republic, Rhode Island has never had less than two U.S. Representatives. That’s about to drop to one when the 2020 U.S. Census numbers are tallied.
The reason is as simple as elementary school arithmetic: Rhode Island’s population has been roughly the same since World War II at about one million people. The House is apportioned according to population. The average House district now is about 750,000 people. Rhode Island’s two districts have roughly 500,000 people each.
The U.S. Constitution requires a census every 10 years. The original reason for this national count was to allocate representatives. Nowadays, these numbers are used as the basis for an array of federal programs and social and economic studies.
The Rhode Island seat will likely go to Arizona or some other Sunbelt state that has experienced big population growth. New England states have largely stable populations with low birthrates and less immigration that states along the southern border and the Mountain West. States likely to pick up seats include Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon and Texas, according to reapportionment guru Kimball Brace, president of Election Data Services. States losing seats besides Rhode Island include West Virginia, Alabama, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
The Constitution requires that each state –no matter how small its population –gets at least one representative.
The looming loss of a seat has sparked rounds of speculation in the cozy realm of Rhode Island politics. Both seats are currently held by Democrats, Jim Langevin of the Second District and David Cicilline of the First District. If they both opted for reelection, they would have to run against each other in a primary in 2022. While that’s too far off to make any informed prediction, the state’s political culture would favor Cicilline because he represents the parts of the state and with higher primary voter turnout and is viewed as closer to Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s leadership circle than is Langevin.
There isn’t really anything the state can do to avoid losing a seat. Gov. Gina Raimondo has wisely begun a campaign to urge Rhode Islanders, both citizens and non-citizens, to be counted. It is in the best interest of state politicians to get the count as high as they can.
Yes, as data maven Brace points out, such an effort won’t stop what he calls the state’s “death spiral” of losing a seat. Population shifts are the result of long-term economic and social forces, such as recessions and immigration that cannot be reversed in the short-term. With lower birth and immigration rates and the usual churn of the elderly fleeing snow drifts and higher taxes for the sunbelt, New England states are losing out. Massachusetts dropped a seat after the 2010 census.
The result is that New England’s future political influence will depend more on the Senate, where each state gets two members. New England states combined have 12 senators. One major reason is because voters in the region tend to reelect senators, which is crucial in accumulating influence in a chamber where seniority matters, says longtime University of Vermont political science professor Garrison Nelson. With the exception of New Hampshire – a swing state—New England voters usually reelect incumbent senators. Vermont, for example, has never tossed out a sitting senator since 1913, when senators began being elected by the popular vote, rather than by state legislatures. Rhode Island voters have denied only two incumbents reelection –Republicans Jesse Metcalf during the Great Depression in the 1930s and Lincoln Chafee in 2006.
The other collateral damage of losing a House seat comes in presidential elections. The Electoral College may be a relic of the horse and buggy era, but it is crucial when it comes to electing presidents. A state’s Electoral College vote is calculated the number of senators and representatives. You think the White House candidates ignore Rhode Island now, just wait until the state’s electoral votes drop from four to three.
Scott MacKay’s commentary can be heard every Monday morning at 6:45 and 8:45 and at 5:44 in the afternoon. You can also follow his political analysis at our “On Politics” blog at ThePublic’sRadio.com
